IND 9-5, CIN 8-6, PIT 7-7, Jets 6-7... Playoffs!?

kinggofg · 12-05-2012, 08:12 PM

I was bored so I put together a monte carlo simulation in excel with all the teams still in it. The main assumption that most of you would disagree with is that I said there is a 50% chance of each team winning each remaining game. (except head to head where I obviously assummed two team couldn't win). I didn't allow for any ties. I tested a bunch of the winning simulations in the ESPN calculator, but I did not enter in every possible rule.

Based on that we have a 5% chance of making the playoffs.

If you assume we will win 8 games we have about a 1% chance

If you assume we win 9 games things are a bit more optomistic, we have about a 40% chance of making the playoffs.

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12-05-2012, 08:12 PM	#11
kinggofg TheGangGreen.com Regular Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 292 vCash: 50	I was bored so I put together a monte carlo simulation in excel with all the teams still in it. The main assumption that most of you would disagree with is that I said there is a 50% chance of each team winning each remaining game. (except head to head where I obviously assummed two team couldn't win). I didn't allow for any ties. I tested a bunch of the winning simulations in the ESPN calculator, but I did not enter in every possible rule. Based on that we have a 5% chance of making the playoffs. If you assume we will win 8 games we have about a 1% chance If you assume we win 9 games things are a bit more optomistic, we have about a 40% chance of making the playoffs.