I was bored so I put together a monte carlo simulation in excel with all the teams still in it. The main assumption that most of you would disagree with is that I said there is a 50% chance of each team winning each remaining game. (except head to head where I obviously assummed two team couldn't win). I didn't allow for any ties. I tested a bunch of the winning simulations in the ESPN calculator, but I did not enter in every possible rule.
Based on that we have a 5% chance of making the playoffs.
If you assume we will win 8 games we have about a 1% chance
If you assume we win 9 games things are a bit more optomistic, we have about a 40% chance of making the playoffs.