its not 1985 anymore. 12 yards is nothing. back then anything over 7 was a difficult get, now there are 20 yard plays all game long.
On 4th and 2 the Pats go for it and make it at a very high rate. The reason to take the penalty isn't to give the Pats 2 chances instead of 1 chance. The reason is the one chance at 4th and 2 is a very high completion chance and it's a down and distance that every coach (with a competent NFL O) should take in that spot even though most don't. BB would have. He plays the percentages. The 3rd and 12 doesn't give them 2 shots instead of 1. It's intended to get them to 4th and more than 3 or 4 to force a 4th down field goal attempt. The field goal isn't forced on 4th and 2 against a coach like BB who understands that 7 is more than twice 3, the 3 isn't automatic, more than half of all NFL plays go for 4 yards or more and 4th and 2 is a very high probability to make with Tom Brady reading the D and in position to change the play or call a time out if the D happens to luck into the right call. Stopping the Pats on 4th and 2 for almost every NFL D is pure luck. Keeping them from 4th and 2 or less on 3rd and 12 happens a majority of the time. It was the right call and it failed. The only logic to not take the penalty is if you think the Pats don't go for it on 4th and 2 in that spot. There was no reason for them not to go for it in that spot. To put it another way if Tom Brady was our QB and we didn't go for it on 4th and 2 in that spot I would have started a thread to fire Todd Bowles.
If that's the case there is almost no justification to not go for it on 4th down almost every single time.
You really think the percentages for a 12 yards for a first down isn't significantly different than needing 2 yards for a first down http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/downs the Pats convert 3rd down's to 1st downs under 40% of the time. They convert 4th downs about 55% of the time. Granted there is a lot less stats for 4th down conversions so there might not be enough of them to be statistically relevant. I can make a pretty good assumption that 4th down conversions are happening at a much higher rate than 3rd down conversions because of the distance needed to get a 1st down. The Saints have gone for the most 4th down conversions and are 11 out of 12. The Saints have the highest third down conversion rate in the NFL and the get a first down on third down 46.8% of the time. That's all 3rd to 1st downs. I guarantee you the Saints are converting a lot of third downs that are less than 10 yards. Your assertion that you're giving them 2 shots is dependent on getting at least 10 yards on 3rd down to change the situation on 4th down. 3rd and more than 12 was converted at a rate of 18% league wide in 2017. Granted they only needed 10 to get back to a makable 4th and 2 but the odds of getting back to 4th and 2 or less was substantially less than getting a first down on 4th and 2. https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/951xns/oc_nfl_3rd_down_conversion_rate_by_distance/
TB will get killed because of how it played out but I agree, I don't feel like it was the wrong call at the time (or at least no worse than the dozens of other bad calls throughout the game)
Exactly. The reality is the combination of this staff with these players is a hot mess. Changing a particular in game decisions on a penalty doesn't fix the problem anymore than trying to cure a guy with a gun shot wound to the head who's bleeding out by giving him a lollipop. At some point the prosecution has proved their case and should rest.
I think S. Michel averaged about 6 ypc or more as well. I see no reason why BB wouldn't have gone for it, especially vs the Jets.
YOU DO NOT take the penalty in that situation,,,it was a no brainer its 4th and 2 and if Belicheat chooses to go for it so be it but to give Brady and company another chance was just asinine = Bowels at his best
On that point I agree, it doesn't change the overall situation, but in this case it's not at all clear that the "prosecution has prove their case" sufficiently to ensure Bowles being fired.
Sack? When's the last time the Jets even pressured Brady, much less sacked him? There was NOT ONE PLAYER on the entire Jets team that has ever sacked Tom Brady - EVER - whether with the Jets or with another organization. NOT ONE. The Jets haven't gotten a turnover in 5 games, and they hardly ever sack the QB. The whole "if they would have sacked him they would've gotten him out of field goal range"" theory is ludicrous. They should have made it 4th down. They either kick the FG or take a 50/50 shot at being stopped. Giving him two plays to get the first down was just stupid.
Meh I hate Todd but I was on the fence at that exact moment (Trying to be brutally honest here) Neither call was a slam dunk. After it happened I laughed and said SOJ
The first coaching screw up came early in the drive when they didn’t challenge the spot on the 3rd down run. They were clearly a yard short. We should have gotten the ball back right there. Taking the penalty later was also terrible. Force them to go fourth down. They risk turning the ball over which is the best we could have hoped for in this game. You wanna know how bad Bowles coaching is. By the end of the first quarter it felt like HE was trying to tank the game!
Honestly Biggs we have watched a lot of football and I have never seen a HC take a sure 4th down and give a team another crack at it by making it 3rd and long.
I was coming here to post something along those lines. As much as I want Bowles fired I can not fault his logic in the decision. It was the right call to take the penalty, we just could not execute on 3rd and 12, which, sadly, did not surprise me at all. I even said to my buddie "how are we going to fuck this one up?" and we did... the life of a Jets fan.
The stats already support going for it everytime. The league wide percentage is around 56% or so last I read about it. NFL coaches are conservative to a fault and often stick to the cautious, more socially acceptable call as opposed to the statistically correct call because of how the public and media would react.
By taking the penalty, you guarantee a FG and give them a chance for a touchdown. By declining, you let them chose FG or possible turnover on downs. As bad as the jets offense is, most people take the 3 points and consider it 10.
