Which NFL games today are worth a wager ?

Discussion in 'BS Forum' started by CBG, Sep 16, 2018.

  1. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    I will say the Texans are well worth a wager here in week # 2----Watson can't play any worse then last week and gets Will Fuller back. Texans are coming off a loss and now get Mariotta if he plays who is hurt and who looked bad last week otherwise its Gabbett . In other news Delanie Walker is hurt and done for the year,,,,to make matters worse the Titans are missing their left and right tackles today. Yep I would say lay the 3 or 4 whatever it is,,,,,ps honorable mention goes to the Chargers against the Bills
     
  2. cgrec

    cgrec Well-Known Member

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    I agree I like Houston and I do think the Chargers will cover. I also like the Giants +3
     
  3. The Waterboy

    The Waterboy Well-Known Member

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    Chargers -7.5, Houston -2.5, Jets -2.5 and Eagles -3.5

    On another note, did anyone have an adjustment made to their Draftkings account in the last week? I never deposited any money and only played off small winnings from free contests entered but had about $10 added to my account last week. Just curious if anyone else had the same.
     
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  4. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    They owed me $10 I think they credited you by mistake LOL,,,,no Waterboy no adjustment here,,,,BTW I did not even throw in go with the 9ers and lay the 6 against the Lions as I thought that was a given
     
  5. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    PS texans are anywhere from 3 1/2 to 4 point favorites now,,,,but I don't think it matters
     
  6. The Waterboy

    The Waterboy Well-Known Member

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    I thought maybe it was another scam like the checks I get for $1900 for a $500 painting I am selling, I am supposed to cash the check and give their shipper $1400 when they pick up the painting.
     
  7. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    so much for the Texans they did have a shot at the end but Watson had brain fart he ran the clock out himself,,,just crazy it should have never even come to that .......
     
  8. Antoni

    Antoni Well-Known Member

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    NFL spreads are very hard to beat. Totals are easier, but not by much. The lines are always so damn tight. If you want to make money betting football, you have to bet college totals.

    If you can pick 60% against-the-spread in the NFL you are elite.
     
  9. Ralebird

    Ralebird Well-Known Member

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    Yeah. I had $1.68 added. Don't know why. Have played very little and only with freebies and house money. My balance is now $0.93 - can't wait 'til next week!

    I don't worry so much about the details when people give me money any more, not since that Nigerian prince sent me the fourteen million dollars.
     
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  10. The Waterboy

    The Waterboy Well-Known Member

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    Strange, a google search only comes up with people talking about adjustments that were made back in 2015 for people betting Nascar. Not complaining, maybe I can double my money and have enough to buy a 12 pack
     
  11. Cidusii

    Cidusii Well-Known Member

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    Is that if you bet on every game? There's typically at least one game per week worth betting on value-wise, either ML or spread, especially earlier in the season when the betting lines are based on less data.

    For example, last week the Jets were paying pretty well for the odds ML, and week 2 had the Chiefs at 3.00 ML against the Steelers, which was massive value. This week the two games that stand out as value to me are Jets +3 and either Broncos ML or +5.
     
  12. Antoni

    Antoni Well-Known Member

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    Naw, I think if you can bet 60% or better lifetime you are crazy good, even if you pick off only a handful of games per week. If you bet on every game you will get destroyed. I know there are a few luckboxes on ESPN who can go 75% against the spread on a given year, but that is not maintainable over the long haul.

    I love college. If you can analyze football and pick off weak lines what difference does it make if you bet NFL or college? There are a shitload more plays per week in college than the NFL, so you can get a larger volume of bets in too. Easiest conferences to beat imho are the ones that get the least amount of action and views.

    BTW, the shorter your range on value plays will increase your overall winrate, but not overall income. For example I think it would be better to pick 58% over 1000 games than pick 60% over 500 games.
     
    #12 Antoni, Sep 19, 2018
    Last edited: Sep 19, 2018
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  13. HomeoftheJets

    HomeoftheJets Well-Known Member

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    I have a funny feeling there's more money to be made in convincing people you can beat the spread and then selling "advice" than there is in actually beating the spread.
     
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  14. Antoni

    Antoni Well-Known Member

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    You are not wrong. As a rule of thumb, paying for picks is an awful idea. 99.9% of the people who sell picks are, at best, 50/50 coinflippers. They are used car salesmen basically. They will BS you on why so and so will win, and there is certainly an art to that, but it's nowtprofitable handicapping. You already have to beat the bookie's juice, now you're going to pay some used car salesman for his "expert" advice?

    IF and only if you can find someone with a verifiable track record, who only charges a small fee and not a percentage, then it *might* be worth it. I don't think these people exist.

    There are dozens of free sites now in 2018 when you can just tail people who posts their picks for free. They are not any worse than people who charge for it. Better yet, just fade Mike Francesa's picks.
     
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  15. Antoni

    Antoni Well-Known Member

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    Also watch out for people who advertise deceptive win rates. I've seen people advertise they are picking 80% only to find that they are picking -300 money line favorites. I too can pick 80% or better picking -300 money line favorites.

    Let's see how they do picking -110 lines.

    Sample size is key. No one cares how so and so went 8-3 last week. Show me your track record over the last 500-1000 games.
     
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  16. Brook!

    Brook! Soft Admin...2018 Friendliest Member Award Winner

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    Yoo

    Give me your best bets this Sunday
     
  17. Jetsfansince95

    Jetsfansince95 Well-Known Member

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    Oakland and KC !
     
  18. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    Week # 3 I would go with Bears - 5 and Cowboys + 1 1/ 2
     
  19. Brook!

    Brook! Soft Admin...2018 Friendliest Member Award Winner

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    How do you like Ravens -5 against Broncos?
     
  20. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    I know a lot of people like the Ravens and especially their defense but the Broncos have been sneaky good so far. I would take the 5 points and the Broncos,,,,,,but Brook what do I know I loved the Texans last week lol
     
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