Jay. Lately I don't like your maps. Madison in the 5 inch range again. When will this madness stop. Do I have to sacrifice CBG to Gods for snow to stop?
I know Brook...just read the long range discussion from the NWS and there are some interesting things in it...some bad. We discussed several days ago that potential wise, this could be the winner. Now one thing could bring all of this to a screeching halt and that's temps. Problem with that is its the GFS model that wants to bring mostly rain...and the NWS is discounting the GFS as of today. Why are they discounting the GFS? Read below: Believe the GFS remains an outlier in how it is handling the system (in part in its evolution of current closed low over Canadian Maritimes and that it appears to weaken/shear the western cutoff more so than other solutions). So for now have used a ECMWF/CMC blend for the forecast for Monday night-Wednesday. Here is the write up and will break it down: In terms of sensible weather, expect mainly snow to develop from SW to NE late Monday night. For now calling for the snow to a wintry mix over the N 1/2 of the CWA Tuesday- Wednesday and snow and rain over the S 1/2 of the CWA. Do expect precipitation to taper off on Wednesday as the storm slowly exits to the NE. There is still quite a bit uncertainty over the exact strength and track of this storm and hence its ultimate impacts to the CWA. It does appear that there could be a period of strong gusty winds as the storm passes to the S/SE Tuesday and Tuesday night. This could result in some coastal issues, refer to the tides and coastal flooding section of the AFD for further information. The slow exit is because of blocking to the north..and that's NOT good. Longevity. Second, they talk about the winds...and that too spells trouble with what they stated..but for me..strength. There is a ton of potential with this storm and will be a long one if it happens. &&
Thanks Jay. Will keep an eye on this. The timing couldn't be worse. I purchased the Arians for heavy stuff. Ended up hurting my back and now snow storms come back to back. I end up paying a lot to someone to shovel my driveway. If this happened before Feb 1 I would be golden.
Really possible. Whats really amazing for the last 3 storms is that for the end of February and so far in March, there has been cold weather for March...but not winter cold yet all these storms have still produced incredible snows. This one...this one has an uphill battle for snows. I really believe the only way it get huge numbers (from a temp standpoint...not all the little threading the needle weather b.s.) is if it falls overnight. When average highs are in the mid 40's..if it were middle of winter, we would never be talking about snow. The only thing they all have in common so far is the perfect track.
An acquaintance in Torrington showed me a picture of a good size bear in his yard a couple of weeks ago, bet that thing is rethinking waking up early now
One other reason most will not want this system is...being a Miller B setup..a storm over the plains moving east that throws its energy to a coastal low...these systems are usually hit and run systems with a 8 to 12 hour window. Not this system. Its a 36 hour event...major blocking to the north and east will give this thing nowhere to go fast....IF IT HAPPENS...which is still a huge if right now but looking more likely something happens. Here is the forecast for North Jersey....and the details give the 2 huge question marks: FROM THE NWS: Monday Night A 40 percent chance of snow after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Tuesday A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Tuesday Night A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Wednesday A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 40%. First major question mark is rain/snow Second huge question mark is duration... Will add a third observation in that the NWS is pretty conservative yet they already have 50% chances 4 to 5 days out. Something is coming.
This feels like the followup to a hurricane season that produced misery along the Gulf Coast in terms of the amount of precipitation. We heard two weeks ago that the Arctic had gone above freezing for a day and then this happens. If the Polar Vortex really breaks down the mid-northern latitudes are going to become really unpredictable in the near-term. This could be an every other or every third year type thing for a decade or more as the melting Arctic resets the patterns. I'm also thinking the UK and Western Europe are in for some very hairy times over the next decade. They're farther north than we are and if the North Atlantic Conveyor shuts down they're going to be really frigid without the warm water from the Gulf Stream moderating for them.
Jay everyone always looks at the surface temps and says its 34 degrees can't snow. If it snows hard enough as it did in the first 2 storms in certain areas they can get a lot, heck storm # 2 gave me a foot but I stray. I don't want this storm trust me I really don't and If it does snow or ICE I will be sending my kids and all their friends to Madison NJ to egg some middle Eastern guy, who has a bad back and a thing for goats -House !!!! Jay it looks like their COULD be more cold air to work with come storm # 4....? 5 days away but even GFS says colder.
have to be honest...will be on in the morning.....but this thing stalls off the jersey coast for almost 2 days...will be on in the morning.
its going to rain. its going to snow. make up its mind already. or don't what ever. come friday i will be in south carolina for the weekend, come sunday i will be in fla. and i know it ain't snowing there. corona,sand,salt and fishing poles time.
BTW this damn storm is STILL there and as Jay said it hangs around for quite a while but then again its days away and as we all know this is subject to change. Models still say YUCK!!!!!
Ok...its official..monster on the way. Now...temps could play a factor as can a March sun shining over this storm...but regardless...I mean...this is a very slow moving strong storm. Checking models now.
From the NWS for North Jersey: Tuesday A 40 percent chance of snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Tuesday Night A 50 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Wednesday A 50 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Wednesday Night A 50 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Thursday A chance of rain and snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Bad news is longevity....good news is snow totals are not through the roof...8-12...I know..thats a lot..but considering how long...I don't really care about totals this far out...because they are usually wrong. Still looking.
The NWS discussion...notice how it says multiple Lows...or one main one. I believe there lies the lower totals. Really believe this will be one huge storm compared to periods of storms but that's just a guess: DISCUSSION: However, global models in remarkable agreement on potent low moving out of the mid west toward the Mid Atlantic coast by Tuesday. Multiple low pressure centers, or one deepening low, slowly move across the western Atlantic, passing just south of the region Wednesday and Thursday. This will set the stage for increasing NE/E winds, and significant precipitation, especially from Tuesday night through Thursday.
AND finally the last model that didn't see the storm but now shows this...friggin American model...last to the party: GFS MODEL: http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=352784
