Jay's House of Weather 'n Stuff

Discussion in 'BS Forum' started by jaywayne12, Dec 25, 2010.

  1. Brook!

    Brook! Soft Admin...2018 Friendliest Member Award Winner

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    I hope it stays South Jay. Don't know where we will put this snow if it snows another 10 inch.
     
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  2. GordonGecko

    GordonGecko Well-Known Member

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    New York City was mainly a non event. There is no snow left already on sidewalks and middle of the streets, some slush up on the curb and on grass. It's just not cold enough, temps barely froze over night, the polar vortex is nowhere to be found
     
  3. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    YEP no cold air to work with had this setup been here a month or so ago when we had cold air in place probably a lot more snow for all but not near the damage,,,,,,,hang in there guys hope everyone is doing ok now that its over
     
  4. Yisman

    Yisman Newbie
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    http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/storm-moves-east-coast-dumping-snow-knocking-power-53599510

    More than 800,000 customers were without power in the Northeast, including some who have been without electricity since last Friday's destructive nor'easter. Thousands of flights across the region were canceled, and traveling on the ground was treacherous.

    A train carrying more than 100 passengers derailed in Wilmington, Massachusetts, after a fallen tree branch got wedged in a rail switch. Nobody was hurt. Tory Mazzola, a spokesman for Keolis Commuter Services, which runs the system for the Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority, said the low-speed derailment remains under investigation.

    In New Hampshire, Interstate 95 in Portsmouth was closed in both directions because of downed power lines, leaving traffic at a standstill for hours.

    Amtrak restored modified service between New York City and Boston on Thursday after suspending it because of the storm. New York City's Metro-North commuter railroad, which had suspended service on lines connecting the city to its northern suburbs and Connecticut because of downed trees, restored partial service Thursday.
     
  5. statjeff22

    statjeff22 2008 Green Guy "Most Knowledgeable" Award Winner

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    This was one of the steepest gradients I can recall seeing - 5 inches in East Rutherford, 23 inches in North Caldwell, 10 miles away. Those bands jay was talking about yesterday really made all the difference.

    Very happy to only have 2-4 inches both at work (Manhattan) and home (central Nassau county).
     
  6. RPOZ51

    RPOZ51 Well-Known Member

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    I'm maybe 1 1/2 miles from E Rutherford, and I measured 10 inches with the ruler. Drifts were higher.
     
  7. CBG

    CBG Well-Known Member

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    Jay GFS was alone but will others come around ? It says its coming-----hmmmm. Very curious to see what they say later or better yet tomorrow,,,thoughts ?
     
  8. FJF

    FJF 2018 MVP Joe Namath Award Winner

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    Models come a little north for Monday? Cman don’t move big A to the back yet
     
  9. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    checking now.
     
  10. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Percentages say no...but a few models want to merge the Southern and Northern stream.

    If I were hired by the NWS...I would have a team of guys...lets say 3...to just go back over 30 years and see what models handle a storm that starts here and ends there better. Just spend a year doing it. What models handle a El Nino year better...etc. That has always bugged me. I mean...what happened to the EURO model that it was incredible for a long time...then sucked.

    Pros will tell you they upgraded it. WHAT A BUNCH OF BULLSHIT that is. If I'm selling a product that the public loves and then upgrade it and everyone is puking....what to do? YOU GO BACK TO THE ORIGINAL FORMULA.

    Sooooo...its not upgrading. Its the change in origination and so many other things. NOT UPGRADING.

    Pisses me off. The weather forecasting will never be perfect...EVER. Why does the NAM do so well with one storm and then get drug tested for the next storm. Why has the GFS nailed a few storms and been DWI'ed for so many others. The EXPERTS will always tell you they have biases...true...FIX IT.

    The vent of the day....deeply apologize.

    Back to the storm. Been 48 hours since the models screamed big one....rarely do they bounce back and it happens. If it does, THIS would be the year because it seems like 72 hours before a storm, the models shout out "oh...that storm!!" and begin to digest it.

    If that's the case, the models will bring it back today or tonight....lets see. GFS is still saying yes...so lets see.
     
    #12750 jaywayne12, Mar 9, 2018
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2018
  11. The Waterboy

    The Waterboy Well-Known Member

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    I feel for you guys, don't miss the snow at all. Although as a kid I remember making a lot of money digging cars out after the storms.
     
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  12. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    Don't see that much anymore..remember when my boys were young...after a storm, I would tell them grab the shovels...go knock on some doors and make money. You can make a 100 in less than 4 hours. Huh? They replied...knock on strangers doors?

    Different times...not many kids seen outside in snowstorms.
     
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  13. The Waterboy

    The Waterboy Well-Known Member

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    It was a little easier in my neighborhood also which was mostly high rises. We mostly just dug cars out so people could get to work. $10 and usually it was just 2-3 shovels full each and a quick push, could usually get 15 or so done in an hour. Blizzard of 1977 was a big money maker for us.
     
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  14. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    That was banding on steroids. Happens a lot with Miller B storms compared to a Miller A storm...Miller A's are like a wall...one system plowing up the coast (see the blizzard of 96).

    Those bands...that's why I always suggest when nowcasting (checking the radar constantly WHEN the storm begins ) is crucial. They usually setup from SW to NE...and while everything around them progresses...they just sit...heavy...and drop.

    These are some of the classic bandings I have ever seen. You see the number differences you posted most of the time through rain snow lines. Not the case with this storm. Great pickup SJ. Rutherford to North Caldwell isn't even a 15 minute drive. Crazy differences.
     
  15. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    GREAT STORM that blizzard.

    My favorite to this day is the Blizzard of 96. I read about it often. From the models...the early predictions....it was one of the few no brainers even 4 days before. It was the first time I can remember the NWS putting out a Winter Storm Watch 4 days before the event. The temps? 16-18 degrees and heavy snow. Amazingly...less than 2" qpf fell for everyone. Which would be 20" of snow for a 10 to 1 ratio....but ratios that day were over 20 to 1. So areas that go lets say 1.5 inches liquid received over 30" of snow.

    And here is the history with photos of that storm...amazing storm.

    https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/remembering-the-epic-blizzard/3466714

    and another: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_blizzard_of_1996
     
  16. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

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    You can get shot in Florida for doing that. Next innovation will be a Moat Law allowing live alligators and pythons in the moat area and encouraging people to feed them with vacuum cleaner salespeople and 7th Day Adventists.
     
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  17. GREG

    GREG Well-Known Member

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    Most home owners now have snow blowers(not all but most) at least from what I can tell. Back in the day many people didn't want to shovel so they would pay the kids to do it. Now everyone goes out fires up the snow blower and does it themselves. For those who are out shoveling many neighbors who have snow blowers will help them out any way.
     
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  18. Br4d

    Br4d 2018 Weeb Ewbank Award

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    I remember walking down Columbus Ave, the only street that was completely cleared, and passing moving buses doing 3-5 miles an hour during the storm.

    In 1978 I was in Weston MA and I wound up walking the train tracks in to Porter Square for an appointment with a guy who lived at his place of business (no, I was not buying anything illegal...) :)

    No power for 2 days now after 22" in Redding. Rumor has it that there is at least one power line that did not go down during the blizzard but nobody will say where it is because they're all chaining personal hotspots from there back to their house.

    The generator and Verizon have me back online but I see people scurrying about and setting up tents on the edge of the property so my bandwidth will probably vanish soon.
     
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  19. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    great points....great points.
     
  20. jaywayne12

    jaywayne12 Well-Known Member

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    just saw the EURO...still a miss but a pretty huge move to the coast. Said today or tonight will begin to tell the tale....it will be tonight. Have a funny feeling that this still begins to get interesting...its just been the TREND of this winter with the models. They are doing much better when they digest these storms when they make landfall out west....better input. That will happen by tonight.

    If its a no tonight..its a no.
     
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