Wednesday looking like a hit,,,,,,battle stations battle stations,,,,,,we have another one to watch!!!!
up at this ridiculous hour so I'm looking at model runs n maps,,,,,,,good looking setup 4 days out,,,,,close to the benchmark and cooler air to work with than the last system----but I'm still a novice what do I know ---battle stations ----this is not a drill !!!
Fjay,,,,was a wee bit concerned about you keep the updates coming on your situation,,u get power back yet ? Hope so.......Wednseday needs be watched and theres another one that needs be watched 8 days away,,,,,,,,then it probably all ends, Hope u are hanging in there Fjay, ps let me know the make and model and I will see what I can find if anything,,,auger or drive info please
Wednesday system much different than last system...very tight core center and its all about track whether its a snow event...or snow to mix back to snow. Because its so tight...so is the output. A more east track over the ocean would produce all snow...but less of it. A more tighter track to the coast would produce more precip....but mixing WILL be an issue for those within 30 or 40 miles to the coast. Right now NWS is going with 3 to 6...but that could change. Pretty strong storm that could be even more powerful. Looks like heaviest precip is last Wednesday morning til late evening but could stayed scattered through very early Thursday morning. Then you have the latest GFS run (below link) that is getting close the latest NAM run (below link) and if both of these happen...all hell breaks loose....AGAIN GFS: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018030418/gfs_asnow_neus_16.png NAM: http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=350694 Regardless....a powerful little guy.
Everything is moved, power restored. Tv/internet both rescheduled for tomorrow. Found a belt hopefully install that tomorrow. What a rough few days it’s been . checked the gfs at noon. That’s a good set up for Wednesday for sure. 4-8 possible for most.
Still time models will probably still go back and forth,,,,,but right now many have this in there sites. Funny how the Euro seems to be more east then others again and kind of on its own , it appears that it was similar with past storms this winter, too far east . PS storm still there and real close to the benchmark-----how you like me now-----Thoughts ?
quick look and they are pretty consistent...even EURO hopped on board. West of NYC/LI....6-12..with some showing over a foot...and I would go on the higher side ..IF..IF..IF...there is no mixing...no mixing? A foot....minimum.
Jay I am having a tough time figuring out South Jersey,,,,Im guesstimating 3 -6 in South Jersey,,,,,,,,,, more or less ? Im talking near the beach and also Freehold area
AS GG mentioned above....closer to the coast will have mixing issues but Freehold is off the coast...so that will be a tough call. Again, track will determine whether the mixing is an issue or nonexistent. This very close to the coast track seems to be getting closer to a consensus which would mean mixing. Hell, you could have areas right on the coast that are mostly rain. But..struggling with that scenario. I truly don't believe that will play out. The NAM is on fire lately and it wants to put almost all snow to the coast except parts of L.I. Tough call. Also...strong intensity like the last storm will provide a colder pool to play with. Unlike that last storm, this one does actually have a cold source to feed off of. Too many things coming into play to eliminate a mostly all snow event for many. Tell you what...looking at the setup and features of this storm...I just wonder if this one will take baby steps to continue growing numbers over the next 24 hours. Believe the big numbers are already there...except I believe all the 5-10...6-12 talk is only because mixing issues. Some models want to give about a 4 hour period during the day Wednesday where its rain and snow. If that is correct...yeah...6-9..if its not correct...and you get just a brief period of sleet mixing in? A foot plus for a decent amount of people. Freehold is more likely to have major issues than P.P. but again...the track...the track. Unlike the last storm..with this storm...snow lovers want the track to be 20 to 50 miles more off the coast than some models have it...which I believe is more likely.
First of all, when did you get back dude???????????????/ Aweome to see you posting...however, youre talking about this snow bullshit????? How am I looking?
Accuweather saying an inch at most for me. Can't wait for warm weather. I'd rather be tracking hurricanes.
So Long Island is the tough nut to crack on this eh? If what I've been taught here is correct, this is a classic Miller B storm and working at a school these snow totals are very important to me....please bring good news.
