Look I know they beat the Steelers twice, had the 3rd best record in the AFC, and are touted to have a great defense. But after looking into the Jags I see some stats that this team might not be so good as they are being touted by the media. 1.) They had the 2nd easiest schedule in the NFL. Its not their fault, but it should be considered. 2.) Many of their wins were against crappy QBs and teams. The only good QBS they have beaten were Russell Wilson and Big Ben. 3.) Their defense is very vulnerable against the run. As you all know the Jets ran the ball at will against them. 4.) They lost to the Titans twice who the Pats had no problem with last week. Is this an over hyped team by the media or are they just a team that is getting better and will have stinkers once in a while?
They have an insane amount of ability when getting after the QB. They were second in the NFL for sacks. Getting after the QB is practically the only way to beat the Patriots. Do I see Bortles getting it done? no. Fournette will probably leave the game before half time with a lower body injury. I do not see them pulling it off. However, their pass rushing ability gives them a good chance. It is Brady's kryptonite. I think the Jags D had four players with 8 sacks or more. That is one hell of a stat. I would like to know the last time a defense had four plays with 8 sacks or more. We should have taken Yannick Ngokue. Instead, we took good ol' Darron Lee.
Belichick will come up with a plan to take away Fournette and that will put the pressure on Bortles who I think will look more like the QB vs Buffalo then Pittsburgh. Hurt or not Brady will play well and by the 4th Q NE will have it well in hand. As for the "great" Jags D to save the day well 42 points given up last week so I am not to confident they can keep the Pats O contained for 60 minutes.
Time will tell, on one hand they have had an easy schedule and have some losses to lesser teams. Then on the other hand they have won some big games. As some have mentioned the Pats should be able to game plan for them, but then again the Jags could play over their heads. i think it might come down to if the Jags D can put the pressure on the Pats as teams in the past have done to win, that is the open questions. We will have to wait and see on Sunday.
The NFL is all about matchups. The fact that they lost to the Titans twice or who they beat previously is irrelevant. If they can run the ball well and control the clock a little on offense and play tight man coverage and pressure brady with their front four they have a shot. Their defense put up 55 sacks and 21 INT's in the regular season. I mean - I expect the Pats to win this game, but think there's a reasonable path to a Jax upset win.
In their last 4 games the Jags D has given up 37 and 42 points to the 49ers and Steelers offenses, respectively. Both games occurred on the road. I think Belichick can expose the Jaguars defense for 35 to 45 points. Bortles won't be able to keep up. Axel should be greased and ready to get some reps in garbage time.
I am sort of confused because of the reasons mentioned earlier. Maybe the truth about the Jags will come out this Sunday.
The teams that have beaten the Pats in the playoffs could all run the ball and play good defense. None of them had an elite QB. E.g. Broncos, Ravens, Jets, Giants. I expect the Pats to win, but the Jags have some upset potential.
You forgot the Colts who had Peyton Manning before his decline. The Ravens with Flaco and the Giants with Eli did have QBs that were playing well then but you are correct about them being non elite. I'm not sure if what we have been led to believe by the media is true about the Jags. The Jets ran the ball down their throats and the Jags have given up a lot of points lately. If the Patriots offense run the ball and set up play action passing, they might be very affective this way. I am not sure if you can say the Jags defense are in the same class as the teams you mentioned that beat the Pats.
The Jacksonville D can generate pressure without blitzing , that is the common denominator of all the team that have Beaten the Patriots in the playoffs. They do struggle against "21 personal sets" and that is the Patriots common grouping. Patriots will just go after Posluszny, with Lewis white or Burkhead. He can't drop in coverage but Jags are kind of stuck going with him because as bad as they are against the run, they are much worse when he is not on the field. Fournett is not healthy and that will put more pressure on Bortles. I'd say the Patriots will win unless the Jags get to Brady and the stitches in his hand get opened up. Then Jax has a better chance. A side note regarding the Jags schedule, they only play who they are scheduled same as the Patriots who also had a pretty weak schedule.
Tony the Jags do have some other good Running Backs other than Fournett. But Fournett is a beast. As for strength of schedule this year the Jags had the 2nd easiest schedule with a .439 opponents winning record tying them with the Titans. Ironically the Jags lost both times to the Titans. The Patriots had the 12th hardest schedule with a .527 opponents winning record. I think something can be said for teams having a bye getting a slow start afterwards. This may explain why the Steelers didn't show up in the 1st quarter of their game against the Jags. The Patriots also allowed the Titans a 7-0 lead last week before blowing the Titans out. Since the Pats have last weeks game to fall back on, I don't expect a very slow start from them.
The SOS is a little bit misleading. The Saints were awful to start the season when the Pats played them and the Texas were a joke with Savage at QB. They reeled off several wins with Watson before his injury. The Steelers started slow but the coaching was terrible, actually Jet like. Piss poor play calling and Todd Bowles like clock management . As for the Jags running backs, Fournett is top tier, Ivory and Yeldon are no where near as good.
1) It's the schedule they were given. They played well. They beat the good teams they played. 2) Rivers isn't good? Dalton? 3) Their run defense might not be as good as their pass defense but hardly to be described as "very vulnerable". 4) The Titans were good this year. Mariota was hurt the entire game, taking away his mobility which is what made him dangerous.Of course the Pats won.
I don't they do it, but if the Jags upset the Patriots it will be the second shot heard around the world from Lexington MASS
The Jags are not for real. Belichick >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Marrone Pats O>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Jags O Both defenses are playing very good football, and the Pats are always near flawless on ST Home field advantage, and no one cheats more efficiently than the Pats in Foxboro (where even the route to move illegally obtained footballs is pre planned). and if all that is not enough, the bullshit penalties for touching Br*dy will be handed to the Pats in key 3rd down situations I hope I'm wrong, but I expect a double digit win by the cheats. I think they can win this with Hoyer at QB.
Any team that makes it to the conference championship game is for real in my book. I don't expect the Jags to win today, but they are a very good team. The question is can Bortles make plays in big situations like he did last week at Pitt? And can the Jags D get to Brady a few times?
I believe Watson was the QB for Texas against the Patriots this year. That game was sort of a shoot out. You are correct that teams don't stay the same. As for the Jags being for real, I guess the AFC Conference game showed they were.
