Theoretically speaking..

Discussion in 'New York Jets' started by Cman68, Sep 19, 2017.

  1. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2013
    Messages:
    35,294
    Likes Received:
    28,717
    I honestly thought you were pot stirring when you wrote your initial post and created this thread. I'm shocked that you were serious. I love you guy, but I think you're dreaming if you think we'll be fine picking 3rd. I would be shocked beyond words if 4 FQBs come out of this class. I think it much more likely that one of Rosen/Darnold will stay in school, and that there will only be 1 or 2 true FQBs and the rest will either be decent starters, busts, or wind up career JAGs and backups. Picking 3rd in that scenario would have the Jets on the outside looking in. Even if Petty or Hack show enough to convince Mac that he can stand pat at QB, 3rd still isn't good enough. If the Jets have the #1 pick and don't think they need a QB, they can trade down for a King's ransom, and fix a lot of holes on this roster in a hurry. You know I love Petty, but I seriously doubt he'll ever get the chance to show what he can do. I think as long as McCown is healthy and playing halfway decent, he will start because as you said, Blowes is coaching for an extension or for his next job. He seems to dislike Petty and Mac seems to only have eyes for Hack. I don't see anyway that Hack could show enough this season for the Jets to not draft a QB #1 in 2018. IMO Petty or Hack would have to start, play lights out and lead the team to at least 6 victories for that to happen.

    Therefore, this team needs to lose out the rest of the way and assure itself of the #1 pick.
     
    #61 NCJetsfan, Sep 19, 2017
    Last edited: Sep 20, 2017
    HomeoftheJets and Cman68 like this.
  2. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2013
    Messages:
    35,294
    Likes Received:
    28,717
    Why would you want the Browns picking ahead of us? We might not get the best QB or the one we want then. Screw that.
     
    ColoradoContrails likes this.
  3. SoylentGreen

    SoylentGreen Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 14, 2015
    Messages:
    1,416
    Likes Received:
    1,753
    You have a lot more faith in both the browns and jets than I do. Need I remind you how the Browns passed on Carson Wentz or how the Jets 1st rounders in the last 12 years have included: Sanchez, Gholston, Coples, Milliner, Keller, Wilson, Pryor, and the jury is still out on Lee...

    The last 3 qb's they have selected - Geno, Petty and Hack...

    My statement was partially tongue in cheek... I prefer to have the top pick, but the given our history, it's hard to fathom getting it right (remember when we also passed on Marino for O'Brien?)...
     
  4. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2013
    Messages:
    35,294
    Likes Received:
    28,717
    OK. The Jets might screw the pick up, but I still want them to have the #1 pick. I now know that you were joking, but I have seen others say the same thing seriously.
     
  5. Cman68

    Cman68 The Dark Admin, 2018 BEST Darksider Poster

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2002
    Messages:
    36,837
    Likes Received:
    30,473
    Question: What would be the tie breakers if several teams finish 2-14? Its possible to finish with a record that bad and STILL be #3 instead of the pole position. I doubt seriously if we go 0-16 and its gonna be hard to go 1-15. I guess we're gonna have be careful who we beat depending on what the tie breakers are. If Darnold or Rosen decide to stay in school, that still leaves quite a few Qb's that for whatever reasons are flying under the media radar. I think with the rookie cap in place, money isn't as big a factor as it used to be but you have to wonder just how hard it would be to pass up being drafted and going back to CFB risking injuries. Between the two, Darnold seems the shakiest as far as coming out. Rosen I think will be the most coveted Qb and in fact, will come out. Guys like Allen, Falk, Rudolph and Jackson all will come out and be drafted.

    Is this Qb class reminiscent of the class of '83? Not saying they are but you never know. There just might be more than 2 true FQB's in the bunch especially these days with the rules skewed so heavily towards the offense and protecting the Qb. Lets see how the season plays out and where we wind up. It does appear that the Jets are at a crossroads doesn't it. We fck this draft up and we're in the shitter for years to come. Welcome to BizarroWorld...

    Keeping my fingers uncrossed! :)
     
    #65 Cman68, Sep 20, 2017
    Last edited: Sep 20, 2017
    NCJetsfan likes this.
  6. STARoSCREAM

    STARoSCREAM Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2015
    Messages:
    816
    Likes Received:
    817
    This guy is catching what i'm throwing
     
  7. Bellows1

    Bellows1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 19, 2012
    Messages:
    2,526
    Likes Received:
    1,695
    This to me, is the single most important part Macc is screwing up on. We need to find out what these kids we already have can do. Don't give them 5-6 games at the end of the season, play them now to see who can grow into the position, or if they're both bad.
     
    hwismer and Cman68 like this.
  8. Cman68

    Cman68 The Dark Admin, 2018 BEST Darksider Poster

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2002
    Messages:
    36,837
    Likes Received:
    30,473
    I think its Macc deferring to Blowes regarding playing the kids. Soon as Macc realizes Blowes isn't interested in this rebuild, he'll be forced to either step in, or be questioned by the entire Fan Base and Tri-State media machine WHY DIDN'T HE PLAY THE KIDS? Since Macc cannot fire Blowes, I'm not sure just how much influence he has over Woody's hand picked HC.

    This is what a fucked up Org chart gets you...
     
    #68 Cman68, Sep 20, 2017
    Last edited: Sep 20, 2017
  9. cval

    cval Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 14, 2010
    Messages:
    4,570
    Likes Received:
    4,958
    It is not like they are going to do much worse than the vets that are currently playing.
     
  10. Mario

    Mario Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2002
    Messages:
    996
    Likes Received:
    409
    I'd like the jets to win at least one game, maybe this Sunday or next week vs Jacksonville. 0-16 would be really bad. After that let the loses pour in. Looking at the schedule, the only possible wins would come the next three weeks and Buffalo at home.

    Looking at the contenders:
    Browns: They are playing better. Have a decent stretch coming with Colts, Jets, Bengals. Also, the Bears and Jaguars also on schedule. Lets cheer like crazy for them this week vs Colts. A game they'd never win if Luck was there.
    Bengals: They have playmakers and should find a way to win at least 5 games.
    Colts: Once Luck is back they'll start winning some games. They are the worst team in the NFL without him.
    Bears: They suck, but just drafted a QB at #2 last year. If they finish at #1, they would likely trade the pick away.
    Saints: They are bad, but should be decent at home. Circle that Dec 17th game vs Jets.
    49'ers: They are also bad. Definitely one to watch.
    Cardinals: They went to OT vs the worst team in the NFL (Luckless Colts). I think they'll be in the mix as well for the top pick now that Johnson is out.

    Obviously its way too early to start projecting. But in about 3 weeks, we should really have an idea how things will shake out.

    Also, the Browns and Bills have two first round picks. So if someone like the Colts finishes at #1, these teams might have more to offer in the draft to trade up. Just something to watch for.
     
  11. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2013
    Messages:
    35,294
    Likes Received:
    28,717
    Well, head-to-head record would be the first level, I believe. So, if we want to beat out the Bills, Browns, Dolphins, Jaguars, Chargers or Saints, we have to make sure that we lose to each of them (and the Bills and Dolphins probably twice). If we lose to each of those teams, we ought to be in pretty good shape.

    We don't play the Colts. Thankfully, Luck is supposed to play, and in the meantime, Brissett played pretty well this past Sunday, so they'll probably win a handful of games.

    As far as the Niners and Bears, I guess it would be strength of schedule and maybe common opponents. We definitely need some help there.

    Yeah, it will be hard to go winless or even win only one game, but I have all the confidence in the world in Bowles that he can guide us to a winless season. If anyone can do it, he can! ;):(:mad::eek::p:D
     
    Cman68 likes this.
  12. Cman68

    Cman68 The Dark Admin, 2018 BEST Darksider Poster

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2002
    Messages:
    36,837
    Likes Received:
    30,473
    I don't think we can afford ANY divisional wins. We will have to go 0-8 in the AFCE to stay in the hunt. If we win a few games, we'd better make sure we beat NFC teams and at most win no more than 3 games. Even that puts us on the outside looking in unless we start thinking rds. 1 thru 6. I think 3-13 should put us in the top 5 or 6. 2-14 gets us in the top 3 but ONLY if we win any tie breakers with our nearest competitors.
     
    ColoradoContrails and NCJetsfan like this.
  13. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2013
    Messages:
    35,294
    Likes Received:
    28,717
    How would that one win look, if another team finished 0-16, and another two teams finished 1-16 and we lost the tiebreaker to both teams? We'd be drafting 4th.

    There is no real difference between winning one game and winning none. We need to go 0-16 to insure that we get the top pick, our choice of QB, and to insure that Bowles is gone.
     
    ColoradoContrails likes this.
  14. Mario

    Mario Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2002
    Messages:
    996
    Likes Received:
    409
    There is no head to head win or conference tie breaker for draft order. The tie breaker is strength of schedule, with the weaker one getting the advantage. Depending on how they calculate strength of schedule (I believe they count the AFC East teams twice as the Jets play them twice), then a win vs buffalo could count as two loses in the strength of schedule. So if Bills go 5-11, they get counted twice as 5-11.
     
  15. Mario

    Mario Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2002
    Messages:
    996
    Likes Received:
    409
    Going back 15 seasons, there have only been three 1-15 teams and one 0-16 team combined. None of which were the same season. It would seem almost impossible that there would be three teams ahead of a 1-15 Jets team.

    In 2003, a 4 win team had the 1st pick. In 2015, 3 wins was enough for 1st. So this notion that you need to go 0-16 is false.
     
  16. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2013
    Messages:
    35,294
    Likes Received:
    28,717
    The following was in the Wikipedia article for the NFL draft:

    Following is the link at nfl.com regarding tiebreaking procedures. It is mostly in relation to the playoffs. The very last section at the bottom of the page deals with the draft.

    http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

     
  17. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2013
    Messages:
    35,294
    Likes Received:
    28,717
    Every year is different. Look at how many bad teams there are this year. They're not just playing badly, but are bad teams or have suffered major injuries to key players that should have them struggling all year long.

    Look at how things turn out for the Jets. If things can go sideways, they do. We beat Tennessee in the last game of a season not too long ago and it totally screwed our chance to get a FQB. One win can change things dramatically. I don't want to suffer through this season for nothing. We have to come out of this with a FQB and with other picks that can really help this team. I don't want to win one game just for the sake of not going winless only to see it screw our draft position and we miss out on the QB we covet. That would be typical Jets' luck/stupidity. Winning one game is meaningless imo.

    We'll just have to agree to disagree.
     
    ColoradoContrails likes this.
  18. Will-I-Am-Not

    Will-I-Am-Not Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 13, 2011
    Messages:
    1,643
    Likes Received:
    850
    Excellent post, but sadly, wasn't it a 12 million dollar heist for Fitzpatrick?
     
  19. Cman68

    Cman68 The Dark Admin, 2018 BEST Darksider Poster

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2002
    Messages:
    36,837
    Likes Received:
    30,473
    Not really. Fitz delivered a career year in 2016 so he earned his loot. Now 2017 ? THAT was a heist.
     
    Will-I-Am-Not likes this.
  20. Will-I-Am-Not

    Will-I-Am-Not Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 13, 2011
    Messages:
    1,643
    Likes Received:
    850
    I'm still not sure why everyone believes that we need a top three pick to find our franchise quarterback. We just got our clocks cleaned by a kid who was drafted 36th overall, who looks like he's going to have a much better career than many of the QBs drafted much higher than him.
     
    TwoHeadedMonster and Cman68 like this.

Share This Page