This guy is lighting it up and with Josh Allen dropping. Depending on if the Jets are out of the top 3 spots.
I'll reserve judgement until I watch him play a team that isn't complete shit. That ball sure seemed to wobble a lot when he threw it. Bothers me. But I'll give him this: he actually sets his feet before he throws the ball when scrambling. So many people settle with throwing a shitty ball on the run.
Stay away. I see lost fumbles already. Mechanic this horrible shouldn't be even in the discussion of day 2 pick.
He's just your typical Air Raid quarterback. Doesn't go through a progression of reads and the offense is designed as a one read offense. You can watch his highlight tape to see what I'm talking about. He doesn't move his eyes at all as his first read is always open. He's a bigger version of Geno Smith. Big strong kid with a huge arm and a Roethlisberger type of stature. Don't forget that Geno Smith completed 67.4% of his passes to the tune of a 98/21 TD/INT ratio in the same offense. Pass.
I don't think it's the college offense Geno played in that held him back or was the root of his shortcomings.He simply was not good at protecting the football,lacked leadership & was never good situationally. In other words intangibles The knock on the air raid is the lack of fundamentals,snaps/drops from under center,going through progressions & the inflated completion percentages.Can these things be taught at the next level?Of course..buts it's a projection..we tend to equate the need for projections as a red flag..I think that's a mistake. Let's also bare in mind that in most cases(I say most) that air raid QBs are in the air raid for a reason..bc they are great athletes w arm talent. Scouts & pro personnel executives get paid a lot of money to determine if players can transition to their given team's offensive system..why let them off the hook for doing so w superior athletes merely playing in a extremely prevelant system that fits their skill set??There are so many major programs running it now it's only a matter of time til one breaks out on the next level.Let the evaluation/projection process commence & if the red flags pertaining to college system are still at issue..at that point said prospect can be removed from consideration There are what?20 schools in any given year executing a pro style offense?Im not sure it's wise to limit our QB talent pool to solely those players.
We're looking at a prospect in hopes that he can do something rather than evaluating how he does it. He doesn't need to read a defense, look off safeties, or even throw in tight windows. You're taking him and praying that he not only has the talent but you have the coaching staff to be able to make him able to process a defense. There's a much larger difference between running a spread system and running the air raid. Air raid focuses on only a couple of passing concepts and runs them out of a variety of formations which is predicated on stretching the defense through the speed of the receiver. The spread offense is moreso just a formation look that runs pro-style route and passing concepts and can even combine option routes and such. It's my understanding too that most air raid systems do not require their receivers to learn and run at anymore than one position. This even further simplifies the offense for the quarterback and caters each receiver to their strength. I'll try to find a video to show how easy the reads are in that offense. I want to stay away from a prospect like that. How many successful air raid quarterbacks are there in the NFL?
You might find this interesting regarding Rudolph: https://www.si.com/nfl/2017/09/19/mason-rudolph-nfl-draft-2018-scouting-report What I want to know is this: Why can't you adopt some form of the Air Raid offense into the pros? What is that makes it unworkable? I mean really. To put it another way - why can't you take a talented, athletic, strong armed QB and build a system that works for him in the pros? I don't know why that's impossible. Again, I'm no expert, and am probably missing some basic concepts that leave me baffled, but given the premium placed on having a good QB, why are teams simply tossing guys like Petty, or Mahomes, and now Rudolph into the "can't play a pro system bin"? Okay, I'm waiting to be enlightened.
The air raid system is based off the shotgun snap and quickly throw the ball to the receiver in open space. This will work fine in college, but not in the NFL where DBs are 10x faster and stronger. Enter Press coverage, this will shutdown the air raid system right away especially if you have 2 or 3 good DBs. Mahomes will be running a spread offense (we don't know if this offense wins playoff games). Add to the fact that DBs are just overall better in coverage in the NFL and it's a nightmare.
Thanks for the explanation. Still, there has to be some way to create a system that you can adapt for a guy with great attributes who has played in an Air Raid system. I'm thinking along the lines of what Bill Walsh did. In a way, doesn't Brady run a sort-of Air Raid system? I mean when a QB throws 50 times a game, to me that's some kind of Air Raid. When you watch him in the shotgun and firing darts and cutting up a defense with quick throws, isn't that similar? Again, I think too often NFL coaches are wasting talent by trying to fit square pegs into round holes - and not just with QBs either.
Maybe so...but guess what? Most of the pro style offenses in college aren't all that much more sophisticated beyond formations & if your lucky a progression or 2. The only other major difference are playing under center & handing the ball off. It just goes back to my original point that all college Quarterbacks need to be evaluated as basically their own species. We can't take stats/offense they played in/mechanics/throwing talent,etc at face value. It's all intertwined & that's before you get to the most quality of all: leadership intangibles. Some stuff is coach able..some stuff isn't. Above all else is he a coach able leader of men? I think the "What Air raid QB has been good in the NFL" argument will soon be an outdated one. It's not that I'm an advocate for the scheme or even that I think it's an ideal scheme for a young QB to play under..just rather there are so many top level programs using it now which means so many highly recruited QB prospects are playing in it..It's only a matter of time till a FEW of them break through & at that point NFL player development will have a better idea on how to approach their acclimation process to an NFL offense.
Do not undervalue taking snaps under center because it opens up the offense, but there's only one coach in the NFL that can run something other than the pro style offense and that's Andy Reid in KC. No one has come close to running that offense, even so there are far more things you can do in a spread offense in comparison to the Air Raid. It took decades after the spread was implemented in college and still it hasn't really won any major championships. Someone will eventually break the mold and try to run it, will they fail? We don't know, but I don't want the Jets to be the first team to trout out an Air Raid offense. QBs in college do need to be evaluated as their own species. You evaluate the QB not only by looking at their mechanics, but you also look at what skill-sets translate to the next level. You take those skill-sets and incorporate it into the offense. Play to their strengths. You don't make them someone they aren't. The pro style offense is becoming obsolete in college no doubt about it but it's a double-edged sword. I think that's the reason why you see an epidemic in terms of bad offensive line play and a lack of good QBs. Sure you will win games, but these prospects aren't being prepared for the NFL. That's not the coaches job, but still it's an issue. I don't think the Air Raid, will ever be a success dropping back 50+ times, virtually no reads throwing to open spaces. Playing primarily shotgun limits your offense. Eventually, 2 things can happen. Coaches get more innovative and find a way to implement this offense or we will be entering an era of defensive football as teams will just lock down air raid offenses with press coverages and speed rushers on the outside. Not going to run the ball as much? Well that's playing to the defense's strengths. Give me a spread offense with pro style principals like snaps under center and quick reads.
They run a pro style / spread more-so then Air Raid. Brady's offense is completely based off timing and creating mismatches.
I guess I don't really see the difference between those two - they're on the same sliding scale from my understanding. But again, I'm not an expert and maybe just don't get it. I'm not trying to be pigheaded, and you don't need to spend a lot of time explaining this, but what are the key differences between what Brady (and a number of other pro QBs) does, and an Air Raid QB? Why can't you take a Rudolph and - with some coaching obviously - drop him into the Pats offense? Edit: Yeah, I know snaps under center is a difference, but are you saying a Rudolph or Petty can't figure out how to do that?
Air Raid is one of the more QB-WR friendly offenses in college. The Patriots offense is far from that. It is very complicated in terms of the route tree and timing. Chad Johnson would've been find with the Air Rad back in his hayday, remember when he struggled with the Patriots when he signed? I REALLY don't like Rudolph, I think his ball placement ability is spotty at best and he doesn't make great decisions, a product of his team, he doesn't make anyone better. That said, I never liked Petty either and they look like the same type of player. People always wanted to get on my case about snaps under center. Taking snaps under center is more then taking snaps under center. 3, 5, 7 step drops, play action, timing these things are essential.
Yeah I never understand the warped logic either. What you want to do is look for is the guy teachable and is his brain functioning. Because if he isn't teachable (Geno) and dumb as rocks (also Geno) doesn't matter what offense he was in. Michigan has always been a running school. How has Tom Brady done? What kind of offense did Bear Bryant run at Alabama? I bet you it wasn't a pro style one, yet Namath and Stabler are in the Hall of Fame.
I like him because of his attitude-kids a winner and a fighter. But agree he needs to play some top tier teams e.g. Kansas , KSU Draft a QB every year till ya hit gold You can't win on Defense folks. D gets fine tuned after you are scoring points week after week
Preaching to the choir brother. I'm so over drafting defense. It would be good if the defense was even decent but they are horrible and that falls on the coach because I'm sure that is what he wanted.
I'm not pulling for Rudolph either, but just wondering why no one seems to be able to make use of talented players from Spread systems.
The speed of the average linebacker in the NFL is also what kills that sort of offense. They fly to those quick screens so quickly that they can't get off and running. The whole offense is setup with those receiver screens that they loosen up the defense to hit the balls over the top. The NFL has adopted some of the air raid principles and incorporated the quick receiver screen game into their playbooks. But they can't be the basis of the offense because of what you just outlined plus the speed of NFL linebackers.
