Darnold Will Blow Up The Tank Job

This is a dumb thread. The Jets are NOT tanking. To even think that they are is absurd.

 

I basically agree with this post with the exception of the part that I bolded. I don't think the Jets should draft a QB high who had one good year in college. If Darnold has a great year and comes out, then I'd settle for two years, but I'd prefer a QB who has played well for 3 years and shown improvement. I don't want a QB who was mediocre for a year or two of his collegiate career, but then had one good year.

 

..And how many awesome lines are there in the NFL? Mainly just 1 & they aren't even the top team in their own division.

Classically speaking, yes the game is won & lost in the trenches. In the modern game of the last 5 years or so..? Couldn't be father from the truth. For one...defense's have become way too big & fast for a line of any caliber to establish a commanding running attack. Additionally..we see countless plays every Sunday in which an offense could have picture perfect pass pro & not be able to move the ball..and vice versa: Seen plenty of OL's getting killed in pass pro & offenses easily moving the ball regardless.The Jets wisely switched to a Zone blocking scheme last season. The physical drive blocking style doesn't work anymore. It's better to to have the 5 OL all stepping the same way in unision & taking advantage of big bodies who can move people out of an area rather than a gap.

That's not to say the Jets or any team shouldn't strive to build the best line that they can..just that this "as the OL goes the offense follows" is quickly becoming outdated. The game is about the skill & boundary now.

Also..no disrespect, but as others have already pointed out from 08-10 we had arguably the best OL of the decade & we only had a slightly above average scoring offense. Same can be said from 00-04. We've had plenty of top notch OL's but have never had the skill to to compliment it. One of the reasons for this problem? Based on their actions, the team shared your opinion about OL paving the way; You have to have top skill to match up w. the big boys. While OL is important positive production can be yielded via scheme, cohesion,the right mix of guys & of course superior talent at the skills compensating for the weaknesses up front.

Turning a blind eye to the solution at QB to take any OL even if its Anthony Munoz would guarantee at least 5 more years of futility.

 

My point was not so much to suggest that a 1 year wonder is the route the Jets could go..but rather that acouple well regarded 1 year wonders could further saturate the QB draft board allowing further security in their being options regardless of where the Jets are selecting.The more high ceiling guys entering the fold..the better!

That said, while preference would obviously be to select someone w. alittle more of a sample size to which to evaluate, it'd be short sighted & irresponsible to cast off any potential fits just b.c the sample size is smaller & it's a harder projection. Scouts get paid what they do for a reason.Almost 50 years of sub par QB play, personally I'm not letting any preconceived notions,inferences or criteria stand in the way of the team building a comprehensive positional big board.If a 1 year wonder ends up being the best fit or is the only option when the Jets are OTC?? We cross that bridge when we get there..but I'm not letting those concerns fog the wide net portion of scouting.

 

Of course he did. The same as Sanchez benefited from our line in 09 and 10. You're not seeing the point though. Getting decent QB is much harder than getting a decent o-line. When there are quarterbacks available to you that you believe will give you decent QB play you go get them because you will not always have the chance. Good QBs are found and held on to. It's much easier to fill out a line.

Dak has produced at a high level dating back to highschool. On every level he's played efficiently. He developed as a passer in college and has that gene that makes good QBs. Sure Dallas's best in the league line helped him, of course. To say he'd play like Geno without it is ignorant.

Like I said, Sanchez wasn't enough with a stacked team. In 2009 we had the best o-line, rushing attack, defense and it wasn't enough because of one position. In 2010 Sanchez improved and we still had the best o-line in the league. However our secondary gave up far more touchdowns than the year before despite still being a top 5 unit.

2009: Sanchez 12 TDs, 20 INTs
2010: Sanchez 17 TDs, 13 INTs

2009: Jets Defense Allowed 8 TDs, had 17 INTs
2010: Jets Defense Allowed 24 TDs, had 12 INTs

Both years we made it to the AFC Conference game as you well know. However, we were a team focused on running behind our stout o-line. As I said before 2009 we had a best in the league rushing attack. When it came down to it in BOTH of our AFC Conference games the run game was not enough.

In 2009 against the Colts we rushed for 85 yards on 27 carries, 0 TD. Just before halftime we were up by a large margin but Manning and the Colts ended up scoring 24 unanswered to take the game away. Our QB wasn't able to keep up with his meager skills and his best in the league o-line wasn't able turn him into one of the best statistical rookie QBs of all time like they did for Dak in Dallas.

In 2010 against the Steelers we rushed for 68 yards on 18 carries, 0 TD. Almost like poetry, this game started stark opposite of the last years, with us trailing 0-24 until just before the half. Sanchez and our Jets, try as they might, only could muster up 19 points unanswered.

In games like these you need a QB who can make things happen when other parts of the team fail. When your top defense can't slow down the other teams offense. When your rushing attack must be abandoned. When your line gives up sacks. This is why the QB is the most important position in the game, he holds the cards and when it comes down to it in the big game, your QB is the one who will win it for you. Sanchez wasn't good enough to do it even with two Jets teams that were top 5 in the league in every non-QB category. It's RARE to have a team that stacked, and if your QB isn't good enough even when you're stacked you're still not a shoe-in to make it to the big one, let alone win it.

A good QB gives you a chance to win more games than you lose every year. A great QB gives you a chance to make it to the playoffs every year. An elite QB gives you a chance to make a run every year. This is how I view it. Obviously it's not set in stone and you need a complete team. 2009 and 2010 showed us that even if you have a complete team that dominates in most categories, if you don't have an above average QB it won't be enough because they will most likely be out-dueled late in the playoffs by better QBs. Sanchez played pretty well in the playoffs in 2010, did all he could. I'd say he was above average throughout the playoffs. Still wasn't enough.

A great QB can overcome a bad o-line. Ask Russell Wilson.
A great QB can carry a bad team. Ask Andrew Luck.
A great o-line can NOT carry a bad QB. They can hide that he's trash for a little while but it always ends up stinking eventually.

 

Sorry if I misunderstood your intent. I agree that the more high-ceiling guys that are in the draft, the better the Jets' chances.

You make some good points, and I tend to agree with them. I guess it's more a matter of my preferring someone who has a bigger sample size and a better track record. If neither Hack nor Petty show enough to suggest that they can be the QB of the future, then the Jets will have to find a QB in the draft. If the only QB they have a shot at is one who only has one very good year, but the Jets' scouts think he is a great prospect and a great fit for our offense, we have to roll the dice on him.

The only problem with that is that is when one takes a QB in the 1st round, it pretty much guarantees that the team will invest 3-4 years in him and seek to build the team around him. If they miss, it will set the rebuild and team back at least another 4-5 years. Of course the same is true if they draft Darnold or Allen and he doesn't pan out.

 

Correct, ask the Cowboys in 2015 when Cassel, Moore and Weeden combined to go 1-11 with that same "great" O-line.

 

It will certainly set the team back..IDK about 4-5 years though. Used to be that was 100% the case. I'm not so sure about that anymore.The rookie wage scale has eliminated some of the long term financial risk of taking a QB early in the draft. As such you can dump a guy with limited long term set backs & pounce on another 1st round QB in very short order.

As for building a team around the QB? I get what you're saying wherein if we were to build a team around a QB and then he doesn't work out that could be a major problem. But consider the fact that the offensive prototype for this team has been non existent from a skill position perspective since early in the Mangini era (beyond the all encompassing ground & pound of course).A young QB forcing the team to develop an identity w. complimentary pieces could be a very very good thing w.o even knowing what the QB is going to ultimately provide. It could at least allow a blue print for which to follow moving forward. If the QB doesn't work out..we can bring in a different one that fits the same or similar offensive infrastructure. I've said in other threads that the way the game is going including on the lower levels that the scarcity of highly regarded QB prospects could be in for a drastic change. From High school on the game is all about passing now.As such we're seeing more elite athletes playing the QB position w. plenty of opportunities to put up gawdy stats. Sure the mechanical part of the game has taken a back seat but I don't see that as hampering this potential movement. If this does come to fruition it further downplays the magnitude of risk associated with drafting a QB.

More elite prospects. Less long term financial burden. Jets as well as every other team can afford to churn em & burn em till they find their answer. It'll end up being similar to the early rounds of the MLB draft when teams prioritize high potential staring pitching over other needs.

 

I wasn't speaking about financially, so I agree that wouldn't be part of the problem.

A 1st round pick QB gets a 5-year contract. So unless things do get to the point where the league can churn 'em and burn 'em, I think a 1st round QB would have to be an unmitigated bust to get cut after 1 or even 2 years...either that or the GM, CS or owner have no patience. I have a hard time envisioning there being so many quality QBs that NFL teams could ever actually church 'em and burn 'em. QB has always been the most important position on the team, and I don't see any more great QBs now than I saw 30 years ago.

Even if the QB is cut after 2-3 years, the problem is that supposedly, the rest of the team has been getting built up and/or developed, so that the team is winning more and more games each season, and thus has poorer draft position, and it gets harder and harder to find that FQB.

Yes, having an offensive system built around a QB can be a good thing, but what if that QB fails, and then the Jets don't have the opportunity to draft another QB who fits, but have the opportunity to draft a great QB prospect who would be a better fit in a totally different system? Then the team would have to tear down what they had built offensively and start over. The Jets have done that too much in their history, and that's a huge part of why their has been no stability or consistency and few winning teams/seasons.

 

Great post Kurt, seriously dude!

My caveat is this, If the Jets believe that Hack is the answer then you won't see Darnold anywhere near this team next year, they will continue to build the skill positions through the draft and let the team grow around Hack and mature together.

 

Perhaps they look to draft a QB in the 3rd or later rounds to replace Petty as a backup. This draft could be one where you find a gem late. I would definitely like to draft a QB this year. Hack's performance will tell the Jets when...

That's when you look at Harold Landry, and those Offensive [edit] lineman. Landry, one of the final pieces to the D. Elite edge rusher.

 

2018 could be the start of a change in this mandate. Look at how far the WR position has come in the last few year's.While you couild always find contributors at any point of the draft, we've seen the position become so saturated that it almost doesn't make sense to draft one in the 1st round unless he is overwhelmingly transcendent.

This is a result of the same thing I was suggesting may happen w. QB's.Elite athletes playing in heavy pass first schemes that give them plenty of reps for development & plenty of chances to put up monsters numbers to market themselves.

Now,I don't think we're talking about FQB's being a dime a dozen. I just think we're going to see an increase in signal calling options in the early rounds of the draft.If that does indeed transpire it changes the dynamic in which teams go about addressing the position. It only puts more pressure on the scouts to sort through the information..and hopefully in the jets case forces them to establish an offensive prototype to grade QB prospects against in a given year. No more Geno Smith situations wherein the guy doesn't necessarily fit what we want to do but due to the scarcity as well as the need at the position we're forced to pounce.

 

Well the construction of that line began due to them getting burnt on aged overweight slow footed group that included Leonard Davis who was getting paid through the teeth yet could barely even shoot out of his stance, Flozell Adams who was on his last leg & the same deal w. Doug Free. All 3 of those guys were massive human beings who in their prime were top level..but when they started to age their "adequate feet" that complimented their size became inadequate.

It started w. Tyron Smith who was a good pick that many criticized at the time.But it was pick they almost had to make b.c the line had become basically non existent in pass pro. They then got really lucky when Zach Martin fell to them. It also helps that they had quality skill already in place on O that allowed them to focus on the big uglies.

I guess my point is..of course OL is important but this idea that it is the be all end all just isn't true anymore. If there ios a be all end all it's having a good group of skill w. a solid offensive philosophy in place.

 

The elite talk would have to wait, but the pieces would be in place. We will see how Bowles and Mac do this coming year.

 

While it's true that the oline is beastly, Dak was not throwing to Clyde Gates and Kyle Brady either. He had elite weapons at every position.

 

From 08-10 we had an above average line but it wasn't dominant, although an over the hill Thomas Jones had a great season behind it.
If we had a decent QB during the 09-10 runs, we would have went much further. The game is very pass heavy now which requires an excellent QB, but balance is much easier to use to find success than finding a Brady or a Matt Ryan. Our current team has no line, an over the hill Forte, and no QB to speak of. If making our team competitive is easier done by building the line first, rather than wasting high picks on shit QB's like we have, why hasn't management attempted it?
As far as a QB overcoming a crap line like ours, Brady or Ryan wouldn't have been playing in the Super Bowl last year without it.
Nacho was really bad when our line was above average. He was much worse when the line (which was old) was disassembled. Wilson and the Hawks have not been the team they were in their strongest window due to their line not being so dominant. Packers same way, steelers same, and on and on.
An awesome line will get you in the playoffs or be competing for such, faster than musical chairs at the QB position. Finding a franchise QB is like catching lightening in a bottle.
All offenses go as far as the O-line allows, even today in this pass happy league. Even so as the rules favor offenses. A shit line equals a shit offense, plain and simple. To deny it is totally silly. Sure we need skill players, who doesn't. But without a line and balance on offense, only a Tom Brady, Dan Marino, or a Joe Montana, are the only guys who can help. By the way, that type of QB is almost a one in a million find in the draft.

 

How hard is to find the man at QB?
You are missing the point, an O-line is important for two reasons, allowing a run game and a pass game. They are not easy to build or every team would have one, especially against today's defensive players. An awesome O-line can take a 3rd to 6th round QB and make a champion out of him, while awesome QB's without a line rarely make the playoffs.
Brady's early career was due to a balanced offense and a damn good line. Didn't it take all time great Elway a long time to win also due to a balanced run game driven by an O-line? Wilson and Seattle's window is closing due to line problems, and the lack of running game he had during their power push. Rodgers and the Pack have struggled due to Oline trouble? Luck doesn't have a line to speak of, how well has he and his team done? Dak was picked in the 4th round, not highly sought after no matter how you spin it. He prospered due to an excellent run game, due to a badass line. Brady won a Super Bowl last year, and he slung it all over the place the last 20 minutes. However the Falcons had the game won due to a QB and team that had balance, and pissed it away. Do you think Brady's line sucked and he carried the whole team with his throwing arm? Hell no, he has a way above average Oline.
Nacho was below average and still is.
If we had an average QB in 10, we r in the Super Bowl. In 09, if we had the same type QB and a decent secondary, we play in another Super Bowl. We had an above average line with an over the hill RB in Jones and Tomlinson both years. If we had Ezekiel Elliot type back, we may have played in a Super Bowl each year even with Nacho, who may be all time top 3 worst QB in Jets history.
We reached for a FQB, and have 2 other times since his drafting. With the QB first philosophy in the draft, even if we do get lucky, we will still suck due to our line. It doesn't matter the era you speak of, or how you put spin on it..... O-lines are and always will be the driving force behind offense in football at any level. Other wise it would be flag football or the arena league.