January Mock Draft and Offseason Predictions

Discussion in 'Draft' started by Cody Hummel, Jan 18, 2017.

  1. Cody Hummel

    Cody Hummel Active Member

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    I see a lot of people sharing their mocks, I haven't read any yet because I didn't want them to influence my decisions. So take a look at this and ill be sure to check out the others. I will say I am not high on any quarterbacks in this draft. I'm looking more at Free Agency to address that area.

    Round 1 Reuben Foster ILB

    This pick may be a little biased considering I'm an Alabama fan, but who cares this kid is a stud. He can do it all he hits hard, he wraps up, he can get to the quarterback, he reads plays quickly, he can be on the field on passing downs as well. This franchise cannot waste another top 10 pick. Foster is a sure thing and he will be a great replacement for David Harris. I look for Harris to come back on a vet min deal for one more season. This would give us Foster, Lee, and Harris going into next season at the ILB position.

    Round 2 Desmond King CB

    This is my steal of the draft. King has first round talent, but with so many other highly notable quarterbacks coming out king is going to slide into the second round and we need to be ready to grab him. If you're not familiar with him look up some tape. He is a ball hawker, he can play zone coverage but he's extremely good in press coverage. There is some concerns about his height but I really don't care. He can work in the slot or on the outside, I have even seen some projections of him moving to Free Safety at the next level. I would draft him with the intent of him being a corner though. He is a dangerous kick/punt returner as well. Something that's a major priority for us. I think the Jets will part ways with Revis and Williams and go after a Free agent corner as well (Gilmore). That would leave looking like this at corner Gilmore, King, Skrine, Burris, Roberts.

    Round 3 Evan Engram TE

    I might get blasted for this but again look up some tape. Engram is an undersized tight end. But I think if we retain ASJ and he gets it together this would be a solid duo. Engram is listed at 6-3 227lbs But he doesn’t play like it, he isn’t afraid to block and he’s a playmaker in the receiving department. He reminds me so much of Jordan Reed. Engram would be a huge mismatch for opposing Linebackers, slot corners etc. He has speed, good hands, can make all the catches, and like I said he isn’t afraid to throw some blocks. I think he is a early 2nd round talent that will fall to the 3rd due to his size.

    Round 4 (comp pick for Harrison) David Sharpe OT

    Sharpe is a good run blocker, but struggles against the pass. He has played both Guard and Tackle in college and could provide depth to our OL. I don’t see us taking a tackle early so I feel we will address that in free agency and add depth late.

    Round 5 Corey Clement RB

    There was a lot of Hype surrounding Clement when he was the backup for Melvin Gordon, injuries have limited him over the past few years but he managed to put together a solid season in 2016. 4.5 YPC 1,304 yards and 14 touchdowns.

    Round 6 Da’Shawn Hand DE/OLB

    I really like Hand in the 6th round there is no doubt he can perform well at the next level but he is very raw and needs to develop. I’m not sure if he will return for his senior season (he probably should) to potentially gain a starting position on the Bama line. If he returns he’s probably a 2nd-3rd round pick next draft. If he comes out this year we snag him in the 6th.

    Round 7 Chris Godwin WR

    I am also a PSU fan as I live near State College, I have seen a lot of Godwin and I really like him. I think he would’ve benefited to stay another year but he has already declared. He has good size, speed, and quickness for the NFL he is also an excellent route runner.


    Roster Moves

    The jets will need to cut/trade/restructure the following players to obtain enough cap space for a productive offseason

    Mangold – Restructure

    Harris – Restructure

    Revis – Cut/Trade

    Richardson – Cut/Trade

    Gilchrist – Cut/Trade


    Free Agents

    QB – Tyrod Taylor

    If the price is right I really like Taylor, I wouldn’t overpay for him by any means but I think he could be a successful Quarterback for the Jets with solid players around him.


    FB – Kyle Juszczyk

    We desperately need a fullback and Juszczyk is one of the best in the game.


    LT – Russell Okung

    Okung signed with the Denver Broncos without an agent and he really didn’t know what he was doing to be honest. He will likely be cut from Denver. I don’t see any other tackles out there via draft or free agency to take over Cladys position. Okung is still young and could protect the blindside until we can groom his replacement.


    DE- Frostee Rucker

    Provides depth to the defensive line, he will be cheap, he is familiar with Bowles defense


    OLB – Melvin Ingram

    Ingram looks like he is on his way out. He is exactly what we need. We have lacked a sure pass rusher for years! He is going to be much cheaper than Collins, Jones, etc.


    CB – Stephone Gilmore

    We all have seen enough of Gilmore. Very physical corner that plays with a chip on his shoulder. He has the right attitude and I love how he plays.


    FS – Tony Jefferson

    I may get heat for this one. I know Jefferson is a strong safety but he did a great job filling in for the injured Tyrann Mathieu. Jefferson is young and like Gilmore plays with that same sort of nastiness that this defense needs.


    K - Ross Martin

    He is already on our practice squad and he kicked for us last preseason. I look for him to beat out the over payed unreliable Folk.


    53 Man Roster


    QB: Taylor, Petty, Hackenburg

    RB: Powell, Forte, Clement

    FB: Juszczyk

    WR: Marshall, Enunwa, Decker, Anderson, Peake, Marshall, Godwin

    TE: Engram, Seferian-Jenkins

    LT: Okung, Ijalana

    LG: Carpenter, Watts

    C: Mangold, Johnson

    RG: Winters, Dozier

    RT: Shell, Qvale, Sharpe


    DE: Williams, Hand

    NT: Simon, McClendon

    DE: Wilkerson, Thomas

    OLB: Ingram, Jenkins

    ILB: Foster, Harris, Lee, Carter

    OLB: Mauldin, Martin

    CB: Gilmore, King, Skrine, Burris, Roberts

    S: Jefferson, Pryor, Miles, Martin


    K: Martin

    P: Edwards

    LS: Purdum


    Let me know your thoughts. In my opinion this is a good strategy to build through the draft (which is Macs focus) but still obtain enough young quality players via free agency. I could’ve been a lot more detailed but due to time this is what it is. I did go over cap space and with the cuts/restructures and projected free agent contracts the Jets would have enough cap to be able to field the roster above.
     
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  2. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    While I love the first two picks, but I think it would be a HUGE mistake to not draft an OLB early this year. IMO they should be drafted and developed, not brought in as FAs. It's one of the strengths of the draft, and we need one who can come in and contribute immediately, not be a long term project.

    I don't think Engram is a good choice for the Jets. We need a traditional TE who can both block and catch to make our offense less predictable and to help protect our QB.

    If Clement can stay healthy, he could be a good addition. I don't know the other draft picks so can't comment on them.

    I don't think we can or should sign Ingram. I think he will be too expensive and he is already 28. By the time the team is ready to seriously compete for the playoffs, he'll be too slow and too old to help. Besides, he's only had one good season. I'm very leery of giving him the big contract he's likely to command, only to see him revert to his previous invisible form.

    IMO the Jets aren't going to be ready to compete next season. IMO your offseason moves continue the "competitive rebuild" nonsense we've seen for the last two years and it has hurt the team. I think we need to scrap that and go with a full rebuild, get rid of most, if not all, of our older vets (keeping Mangold and Harris only if they take pay cuts, no restructures which would result in dead money on the cap in future years).

    You're right, however, that we need to bring in a veteran LT, since this isn't a good draft for them. I'll be very surprised if Denver doesn't keep Okung. If they don't, I agree that he would be a good choice; otherwise, we're looking at trying to sign Andrew Whitworth or Riley Reith.

    I don't think Jefferson is the answer at FS, since he has been a SS. We need a true FS. I don't care for Gilmore at CB, and he's likely to want a ton of money as well. IMO Taylor would only come here if he was guaranteed the starting job, and I don't think that should happen. I think we need to see what we have in Petty and Hack and give them every opportunity to develop. If we want to sign a 2nd tier QB vet to compete for the starting job and serve as a mentor, fine.

    I also don't think we'd be able to come close to signing all of those players. You were thoughtful and gave good rationalizations, but I disagree with your overall premise. I don't think the team is nearly as good or ready to compete as you, especially with our CS, and don't think we can afford or should try to sign all those big contract FAs.
     
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  3. Cody Hummel

    Cody Hummel Active Member

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    Thank you for your considerate feedback but unlike most I do not feel that we are "that" far away from making a playoff run. I think if we have a nice draft class (taking a sure thing in Foster in round 1) get rid of baggage (Revis, Richardson etc.) and spend the money in free agency that the playoffs are a real possibility.

    Our biggest needs are:
    Quarterback: I think Taylor can do well with the right team. I don't actually "want" Taylor I want a true Franchise Quarterback like everyone else. But the problem is there isn't one IMO in the draft, there certainly isn't one on this roster, and there isn't one in Free Agency. Taylor is our best bet.

    OL: Okung fills the biggest hole and I'm impressed with Shell. If we are going to attempt a quick fix then bring Mangold back and we have a solid line. If we are doing a long term build there isn't a need to waste time/money with Nick.

    Pass Rush: I agree that we need to address that in early rounds but I just cant pass on Foster he needs to be here to replace Harris that's why I chose to take Ingram via free agency. if ingram demands huge money then no, but with his age he may fly under the radar a bit compared to Collins, jones (he will be tagged) and Perry

    CB: I absolutely love the value of King in the 2nd. and like Ingram I wouldn't overpay for Gilmore and although he will be expensive he is probably going to be the 3rd biggest corner on the market behind Johnson, and Bouye so I think he will be more of a bargain that people assume.

    S: I also agree we should go after more of a FS but who? If we aren't drafting Adams in the 1st then ill take Jefferson in free agency. I love how he plays, he's familiar with Bowles and if Pryor doesn't end up working out down the road we can move Jefferson back to SS. But with Jeffersons skill set there is no reason he cannot be successful FS
     
  4. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    You may be right, but I hope that Woody agrees with me. With all the moves that you would make, we possibly could be competitive and have a shot at making the playoffs, but would have no chance of advancing past the 1st round. I don't want to be one of those teams that is perennially mediocre where they're always 9-7, 8-8, 7-9, with maybe and occasional 10-6 mixed in. Those kinds of teams have no real shot of getting to or winning a SB. With a desire for greatness, there is a price to pay and accompanying risk. I'd rather sacrifice the 2017 season, and lay the foundation for a team that will be ultimately competitive and have a realistic shot at getting to and winning a SB from 2018 or 2019 onward.

    With this being a lousy draft for LTs, why do you think Denver would cut Okung loose?

    I totally get not wanting to miss out on Foster and I'd love to see him on the Jets, but not at the expense of missing out on a stud pass-rushing OLB. Foster's biggest contribution would be vs the run, but he would help in coverage. Conversely, a stud pass rusher's biggest contribution would be vs the pass, where we need help the most. We have been without a true pass rusher for over 10 years. We have to find a way to do that in this draft. We may need to trade down to do it, but imo we have to find a way to get an OLB, CB, FS, TE and maybe a RB in this draft.

    If we cut Gilchrist (which I think we should), then I'm sure there must be some second tier FS who is decent and has some upside, and then we could look to draft one either this season or next. We could possibly even draft a CB and convert him or Burriss to FS. If they're not looking to make the playoffs in 2017, then they could live with playing a rookie at FS and letting him learn on the fly, or even take a flyer on Jefferson and see how he handles the FS spot.

    I'm glad to hear that you wouldn't overpay for Ingram or Gilmore.

    I also agree with your ranking of needs, but I would add TE and RB to those needs.
     
  5. Cody Hummel

    Cody Hummel Active Member

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    In March of 2016 the Broncos signed Russell Okung to a 5 year, $53M contract which Okung negotiated for himself without a professional agent. Mediots, professional agents, and some NFL players criticized him AND the Broncos for that, and proclaimed that the Broncos had taken advantage of him, but a deal was struck. In the first year of that deal, if the Spotrac numbers I'm looking at and my interpretation of those numbers are correct, Okung will end up being paid $5M by the Broncos for the 2016 season at the cost of a $5.2M 2016 cap hit. 2017 is an option year that activates the remaining 4 years of the contract IF the Broncos choose to exercise it before free agency begins on or about 3/9/2017. If they don't, Okung will walk away in free agency, and the Broncos could potentially end up with a 2018 compensatory pick for him. They would also likely get a $200K adjustment added to their 2017 cap since $200K out of a potential $1M option bonus was already prorated and counted against their 2016 cap.

    So much for the past. On to the future ramifications of the Okung option:

    If the Broncos exercise Okung's option, they will essentially be committed to him financially for both the 2017 and 2018 seasons. Okung will get $20.5M in fully guaranteed money consisting of the $1M option bonus, an $8M 2017 roster bonus, $2M in 2017 salary, and $9.5M in 2018 salary. Okung's contract also includes a $93,750K per game bonus for 2017 and 2018 which comes to an additional $1.5M per year if he is active for all 16 regular season game. That would result in an $11.7M total cap hit for 2017, and an $11.2M cap hit for 2018. After the 2018 season, Okung could be released at the cost of a $400K 2019 dead cap hit.

    I'll have to research where I found this article it's been awhile. I really look for Denver to take one of the top two tackles in the draft either Robinson or Ramcyzk.
     
  6. Cody Hummel

    Cody Hummel Active Member

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    And here's my philosophy on things.. you can do a quick rebuild and compete with the roster I put together. What makes my roster go from a mediocre team (9-7, 10-6 one and done in the playoffs etc.) To a super bowl caliber team? That's right a franchise quarterback. If you put Tom brady, Aaron Rodgers instead of Taylor this is a super bowl team IMO. Well we might as well get everything else right while we have a serviceable quarterback (taylor) until be find the Franchise QB. If you want to find a long term QB you need a super bowl roster around him for when he is gaining playing time. Would Russell Wilson be the Russell Wilson we all know if he went to the Browns? No! Wilson wouldn't have had success if he didn't have a successful team when he arrived in Seattle. So here's where I'm going with this let's say mac wants to see what petty or hack has to offer. Well he better prepare a roster like I created to put around them instead of cutting ties with Nick, Harris and not signing high dollar free agents. In order to find your answer at Quarterback you need to have a team around him or else you're setting that quarterback up for failure
     
  7. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for the info. I don't understand why you think Denver would draft Robinson or Ramczyk and not the Jets, when we pick before them. They are basically a playoff team and only one year removed from the SB. The only reasons I could see why they would let Okung walk is if he didn't play well this year or if they have severe cap issues and just can't work it out any other way. Do you have any info in that regard? If he played well, his salary is right in line with what top LTs make. IMO if they don't have cap issues and he played well, he's not going anywhere.

    Since it's not a great draft for OTs, I think we should look to sign a FA LT as a stop gap, and then if there's one in the draft that they think has some real potential, try to draft him and develop him for a year or two. If there's not one in the draft, then the stop gap will have to make do for a year or two, and hopefully we get a topflight LT prospect in the 2018 draft.
     
  8. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    I disagree. Petty could succeed without the D playing well. The team overall wouldn't succeed, but if Petty showed he could be a quality starter going forward, that would be huge. With a good draft in both 2017 and 2018, and if the Jets don't use all their FA $ and cap space this year to sign more expensive, older players, then they'd have money to add some missing pieces in the 2018 FA period and/or 2019 and then be truly competitive. FA is not the way to try to build a team. You add a missing piece or two, fix depth and maybe STs. The right way to build the team is through the draft and then develop your young players.
     
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  9. Cody Hummel

    Cody Hummel Active Member

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    Okung didn't have a great year, I'm not sure on Denvers cap situation I'll look into that.

    But I agree with you on the free agents to an extent. I'm not listing older veteran free agents that you sign if you're looking to make a super bowl run that year. If you look at the free agents I'm signing they set you up for a run in 2-3 years as others on the team grow. Aside from Rucker because he's a depth/rotational player

    Gilmore 26
    Jefferson 25
    Ingram 28
    Okung 28
    Juszczyk 25
    Taylor 27

    Unless we were contending for a super bowl in 2017 I wouldn't touch a potential starter free agent above 30 depending on position
     
  10. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    OK, thanks. If Okung didn't have a very good year, that could definitely influence what Denver does, but still, I'd think that they'd seek to get him to rework the contract rather than just cutting him outright, but they might have to if they don't think he's worth $11 million. Still, that would be taking quite a risk. What happens then if both Robinson and Ramczyk get picked by other teams? Even if they get one of those two, it's still "iffy" because Robinson is not as good in pass protection as in run blocking. He lacks patience and tends to lunge and miss. Ramczyk has only started for one season at Wisconsin, and the same thing goes for Bolles at Utah Do they reach for a lesser LT or overpay in a trade with another team (assuming that someone else is willing to deal them a LT). With Elway having played QB, I seriously doubt that he will leave the LT position in such a risky state.

    To get a quality LT, it's going to have to be an older FA, either Okung or Reith at 28 or Whitworth at 35.

    I like that the rest of your FAs are under 28 except for Ingram. Good job on that.
     
  11. boozer32

    boozer32 Well-Known Member

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    I like your free agent picks better than your draft. If you are drafting as high as 6 taking a ILB will be a problem. Didn't we just take a lousy ILB last year. Sorry but that is admitting that your pick last year is a bum. Please no more defense we need to eventually score and the way this team is constructed they won't smell the endzone. So yes we will need another kicker because that will be our primary playmaker.
     
  12. boozer32

    boozer32 Well-Known Member

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    Perfectly said NC.
     
  13. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    See my other post. Whereas I'm tired of the Jets taking D players first and foremost, and the offense being an afterthought, I think you have to go with the best players and which players will have the biggest impact on your team. Unless they can somehow get Ramczyk or Watson and either starts from day one, I don't think any offensive player will have that big an impact on the Jets' play from day one. Conversely, I think there are 5-6 defensive players who would start and have a huge impact from day one (Hooker, Adams, Garrett, Foster, the top CB, and possibly Barnett).

    I think you need to prepare yourself for the Jets to take defensive players in the 1st two rounds again. For one thing, I think the #6 pick is too high to take a RB, and as good as Mike Williams is and the other top WR prospect is supposed to be Corey (Davis? I forget his last name), we don't have a glaring need for WR, even though it would be very nice to replace B. Marshall.

    Taking Foster would not be saying that Lee is a bum. A 3-4 D alignment has TWO ILBs. David Harris is close to retirement and the Jets may cut him. Adding Foster would add a thumper who is great against the run to replace Harris, would vastly improve their ability to cover TEs and RBs over the middle and greatly strengthen their front 7. Taking Foster would be better than reaching for an OLB, OT, or QB.
     
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  14. MoWilkBeast

    MoWilkBeast Well-Known Member

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    That deserves 2 likes really. The only way the Jets can go wrong is reaching for a need that isn't there, or a player that is more of a project. Just take the best player on your board in the first two rounds. Odds are you'll get 2 starters who can have an immediate impact and make the team better.
     
  15. Attackett

    Attackett Well-Known Member

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    You did a great job with the draft, I like a lot of the players you selected, just not nessasarily for the Jets. I'd really love to see them prioritize building a young dynamic offense for once.

    The FA though lol, very very unrealistic. We'd be lucky to sign one of those guys let alone all of them. Don't see the Jets splashing in FA this year.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  16. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    Thanks.

    My only possible quibble with your response, is if Jonathan Allen is the best player on the Jets board and is sitting there at #6. We do NOT need another DL and it would a waste of a pick. IMO if Allen is sitting there as their best player, then they either need to trade down, or take the 2nd best player on their list.
     
  17. boozer32

    boozer32 Well-Known Member

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    Some truth and a lot of good points NC. But I would never take a ILB that high in the draft. They don't cover very well as evidence of the speedy little tiny extremely small ILB that we took in the first round last year. He couldn't cover, couldn't tackle, was always out of position and guards and fullbacks were crushing him. At some point as a NFL team you have to balance out your team. The Jets have not done that at all. Yes they are higher rated players that they could take but if you are building you take someone that you can plug in and develop. As we all know no team hits 400 in the draft every year and after you are drafted it on the coaches to do their part. That hasn't been happening ether. Every position is valuable and the Jets need to learn that.
     
  18. MoWilkBeast

    MoWilkBeast Well-Known Member

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    I was working on the basis that Allen, like Garrett, will be gone by our pick, but if he's there then yes, you are right.

    I've no problem with ILB at 6 if he's a guy who can be a dominant part of the D for a decade, which based on everything I've seen and read Foster is. It's not where you would ideally want to go at 6, but this draft seems lacking in players at the positions you would often need a top 10 pick for.
     
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  19. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    Normally, I would never take an ILB that high, either, especially after the Jets have taken D high for so many years, but Foster is an exception. Think Luke Kuechly. Did you see how Foster played vs Clemson in the National Championship Game? The biggest game of his life and he was all over the field. You also can't judge all ILBs by one. Foster has some coverage ability. Lee has the speed and athleticism to cover, but evidently he was never taught or asked to do that at OSU. If he was, then he may wind up being a bad pick, but it's way too early to say that imo. Regardless, I think Foster can be a perennial All Pro if not a HOFer. He has a non-stop motor, plays with a mean streak, has excellent athleticism and instincts.

    If a high rated player already knows how to play at a high level, then he doesn't need a lot of development, which is good with the CS we have. If we rely on them to develop players, we may never have a winning record again. IMO until we can get a CS that knows how to develop young players, Mac is going to have to take players that don't need much development, who can step on the field day one and play at a high level.

    At this point, the only top-rated D player I wouldn't take at #6 is Jonathan Allen. We sure don't need another DL.

    Who on offense would you take at #6?
     
    #19 NCJetsfan, Jan 21, 2017
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2017
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