Team Direction

I made a thread while back called offseason direction, talking about how the team would try to approach this offseason in terms of free agency, based on Idzik's views towards looking for maximum value players, avoiding high priced guys, and taking on low risks with potentially high rewards. This thread aims to look at the current roster of the Jets and what they are going to try and accomplish on the field. I want to discuss coaching beliefs, strategy, and the roster in general. The draft will be addressed towards the end of the post.

When you look at the makeup of this roster, you have to look for an identity. Every successful team has an identity, and it is based upon the coaching staff's core values if done properly. This team is highly reminiscent of the 2010 Jets team, who's identity was ground and pound and dominating defense. There are a few differences, but the biggest differences I see are really those that came with the GM switch. Tannenbaum focused on bringing in proven players, and working the salary cap to fit those players. Idzik is focused on developing young, malleable players through the draft, and supplementing that without spending much of the salary cap on proven players. Competition is a much bigger factor in extracting the best production out of players than under the previous regime. It leads to less certainty, but also provides important depth.

The Jets have two running backs with different skill sets, both capable of taking substantial touches. We have an offensive line that is stronger in run blocking than pass protection. We have a youthful QB with potential, and a veteran QB, both with mobility. Marty Mornhinweg runs a West Coast Offense, but people mistake that for meaning it has to rely heavily on passing plays. The WCO really means a heavily scripted offense, in which the offense starts with a number of plays that have been determined before the game. It is based heavily on timing as opposed to giving the QB as many reads to go through per play. Posters insist Cooks is a great fit for the WCO, because of his speed and quickness, but in truth what you need for a successful WCO is consistency from your players. Say what you want about Decker, but he runs extremely consistent routes, as does Kerley. You can run a WCO just fine based on a strong run game, and because of the mobility offered by Geno or Vick, roll outs and PA passes can comprise the largest percentage of pass plays no problem, they don't always have to be quick passes of slants etc. Stephen Hill has had issues in the past, but his skill set is actually an important part of what the Jets will want to do on offense. Here's why: You want tough blockers on the outside who are going to help our RB's get maximum yardage per play, and there is no doubt both Hill and Decker are strong, effective blockers. Decker is perfect for the role of possession receiver, because of the aforementioned consistency of his routes, also his sure hands, and ability to shield CB's off with his body when making catches. He can catch balls deep and has surprising speed, but he is not a burner, and doesn't have to be. Decker will catch more passes than anyone on our roster. Hill will not be the number 1 or 2 receiving option, although he will likely still be the starter. Hill's primary role will be blocking, but also getting open off of play action. He will need to sell blocks, and then use his speed to separate from the CB who is in close quarters. The PA roll outs and boot legs will give Geno opportunities to get the ball deep down the field to Hill with open throwing lanes. Hill has proven he should not be relied on as a red zone threat, but with a run heavy attack he can be the primary deep threat. Cumberland and Decker will be the primary red zone targets. There is one key piece to the offense that we don't have yet, and that is a blocking TE, which is why CJ Fiedorowicz visited the Jets, and I'm in favor of drafting him. We can pound the ball with Ivory early and often, and his ability to run through tackles will force safeties to play up close. The more we make safeties play on the line, the less help they can give a CB burned by Hill off of a PA fake. CJ gives us a change of pace for carries, but also a guy who can take a number of scripted quick passes in the flats etc.

This possession type of offense is best suited to go along with a powerful defense, which just happens to be what we have. Although the strength of our defense has shifted from the secondary to the line, that is no problem. Muhammad Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson, Damon Harrison, and Quinton Coples will only progress with another year together, so good luck to any team running the ball on us. Our number 1 competition for the AFC East is NE. NE has formulated their strategy around Brady getting the ball to slot receivers, tight ends, and receiving running backs with ideal timing. Their defense is focused on pass rushing and defending the pass vs teams who have to pass a lot playing catch up to Brady's high scoring attack. The Jets have done their best to fight that type of offense, we now have an ILB who can get to the flats quickly and cover RB's running routes (DeMario Davis), a safety who can cover receiving TE's (Antonio Allen), and multiple slot CB's who can cover their multiple slot WR's (Kyle Wilson, Demitri Patterson). We also have dominant D-Linemen to get in Brady's face up the middle, which he hates. Walls and Lankster are depth/insurance and special teamers mostly, so I see the Jets' needing a CB to play on the outside vs Milliner. Walls is young with upside and has shown development, so he could start outside but I don't think that would be ideal.

So that leads us into the draft section. I'll say right off the bat, I believe the Jets need competition at WR, a run blocking TE, a developmental OLB to sit behind Calvin Pace, and a developmental ILB to sit behind David Harris. I think the ILB, OLB, and TE picks can be found later in the draft, perhaps 3rd-5th round. When you're looking at the 18th overall pick, BPA is important to me and I think the most likely BPA when the time comes will Darqueze Dennard, Calvin Pryor, and Odell Beckham Jr. That is not based on need, but simply the best players that could still be on the board when the Jets select. If Dennard is there, he is the best of those 4 in my opinion, and on top of that he would step into the starting role. Dennard is an aggressive cover corner who man handles his guy at the line of scrimmage, and plays tight man coverage down the field. He also steps up and makes good tackles and hits vs the run game. I think Pryor is the next best, and he would also give the Jets' secondary quite a boost. He is a combination FS/SS who can range from side to side, but also speed up to the line and absolutely crush RB's. Should we draft Pryor, we would probably cut Dawan Landry, and have the primary safety rotation consist of Antonio Allen, Calvin Pryor, and Jaiquawn Jarrett, with Josh Bush getting the occasional snap. If Beckham Jr was our pick, he would come in fighting for snaps with Hill and Kerley, and would be our starting kick and punt returner. Personally I think he might be least immediately impactful out of the 3 I've listed. Other possible BPA picks could be Anthony Barr, Marqise Lee, or Brandin Cooks, but each of them give me concern in different ways. If all of the first 3 are gone, there is a good chance a QB fell, and the Jets could look to trade back. Trying to look at BPA beyond the 1st round is to complex without mocking everything out, so I think that if the Jets take a guy like Pryor in the first I'll just simply say they will look for a guy like Bradley Roby in the second round. He is inconsistent, but a strong run defense combined with a ranging FS means Roby could come in and start at CB. I think the depth at WR combined with the fact that our offense will be run heavy means we could take a guy like Donte Moncrief in the 3rd and be fine. Basically, there are lots of ways the Jets can solidify their team in the draft, getting 1 or 2 starters in the first two rounds. The Jets can look at other options if they can't get a starting CB in the draft, with a trade if they like. Perhaps Pryor's presence in the secondary would make them more comfortable with Walls as a starter, who knows. The point is they can go BPA and are not stuck reaching and taking a WR or CB.

 

I'm not high on Hill, if you actually took the time to read what I wrote, you'd understand that I see him simply as a piece to the puzzle. Decker, Kerley, and Cumberland will most likely be our primary receiving targets, and Chris Johnson will get some receptions as well. Whatever your complaints about Hill are, if you say he is not an effective blocker, you would simply be mistaken. Having two big bodied effective blockers on the outside helps maximize yardage per touch for our RB's who I expect to be the primary source of our offense. As of everything we've seen so far, it is too much to expect Hill to get open with route savvy, but if he can effectively lure in CB's as if he is going for a block and then takes off, very very few CB's are going to be able to keep up with his raw speed. He would be utilized mostly with simple deep routes, including go-routes, deep ins, deep outs, and posts. It will be relatively straightforward for Geno to look down the field coming off a PA roll out, and see if Hill got separation. If he didn't, Geno can throw to the underneath route, run with it, or throw it away. He has significantly more athletic talent than Nelson, who is really going to be there more to substitute in for Decker's role or injury insurance. Understanding what Hill's usefulness to the team would be does not make me "high" on him. And yes, I do see him starting week 1, because starting doesn't mean jack. Tommy Bohanon started most games for us last year but he didn't play a particularly big role for our team.

 

You're right, WCO does not unequivocally mean scripted plays, but it happens to be one of the best ways to run a WCO. I I assume Mike McCarthy doesn't script because his mind is able to analyze a defense so quickly that how the defense reacts on one play causes him some kind of "free-association" so that he decides which play he wants to run next, and see how they react to that. I certainly don't know, but running a modern WCO without scripting means he must have some kind of ability such as this. As far as I know, Mornhinweg does scripted plays as do most who run it. I understand that the idea is to establish defensive patterns, and scripted plays allow you to run plays quickly and fluidly enough that the defense spends the initial 15-25 plays reacting to you as opposed to trying to get ahead of you. If I am mistaken or you have further insight, let me know.

 

It's here as an option to read, but what I mean is if you don't read it carefully then don't comment on it.

 

I don't disagree with you on anything, and when you say it sounds like an argument to go defense early, I understand what you mean. I genuinely do want them to draft BPA, but I happen to think if that results in a defensive player they will contribute the most early. Another thing I'd like to note is that if Geno takes significant strides, and we get a guy like Matthews or Moncrief, our offense doesn't have to be so run heavy. If training camp shows dramatic improvement for anyone, or even the course of the season, new plays will be instituted throughout the year. This is just what I see from our roster as I look at it now, and it's less about who we should take early and more of a commentary on the fact that we have more options than people think when it comes to our early picks.

 

Again, you didn't read what I wrote. First of all, I said there is a good chance Odell Beckham Jr could be our 1st round pick, or Donte Moncrief could be our 3rd or maybe 2nd if that's where they like him. I'm commenting on what the makeup of the roster looks like as is, and how the way it looks gives us more flexibility in the draft than people realize. Of course I have my preferences, but I listed the possibility of different options falling into place. If you actually watched our 2010 and especially our 2009 team, you'd see we were successful offensively even when defenses had a good idea what we were trying to do. There is so much more nuance to game calling than you apparently realize; Run plays can set the point of attack at numerous different positions of the line of scrimmage, and it can either be towards Hill or away from Hill. Our packages are going to look like running plays because of multiple TE's, a FB, and the overall formation, not just because Hill is in the game. Hill would also be blocking for screen passes, read option plays, etc. He would also run other routes like slants, double moves, whatever you want. The bulk of his role in the offense would be his blocking ability and deep speed, but that doesn't mean that's literally the only things he would do. He will get substituted out for other WR's of course, for both Nelson and a drafted WR. The Jets have had numerous WR prospects visit the facilities this season, so of course there is a good chance one will be drafted in the first two days.

 

Also just for the record, for those who are worried about David Harris making defensive calls, Pryor can do that relatively early on as well.