I'm pretty sure in this context its that last one. If the talent is obvious and character isn't a concern you go with that option. If the talent level available for any given player is relative or marginally better at best, well now some need based decisions come into play.
In my opinion, the jets should use their top 2 picks at WR and TE, in either order. There is a lot of talent there in the first two rounds and, boy, do they need help there. Rounds 3 and on, just pick the best player regardless of position--When you do that, you usually come out okay. Also, I have always been a proponent of drafting a high risk/high upside guy in rounds 6 or 7--I mean take a guy who other teams may have taken off their board because of an injury or something like that. It's the 6th or 7th round anyway, so what have you got to lose? Parcells stole DT Jason Ferguson with a 7th round pick in the jets 1997 draft, and he turned out to be a stud. A lot of teams had already moved Ferguson off their board because of a positive drug test at the 1997 combine.
I didn't mean "don't take an offensive lineman if he is the best player available." Obviously you pick the best player (unless it's a punter or kicker or long snapper because they will be available later.) I'm talking about who you pick if it's a tie. A top wide receiver would help the jets more than a top o-lineman right now- if they're even, go with the wideout. That will also help us be competitive now and in the future. If we draft a left tackle early in the draft, okay- but he'd better be amazing, because he will sit for 2 - 3 years and not play for us. In my opinion, you can do that 1 - 2 years before you need to replace Brick, not 2 - 3 years. But again- if the scouts truly believe "this guy can be our anchor at left tackle well into his 30s" - then okay. If it's a development project, then I just don't think it's smart. I think there will be a wide receiver with top level potential, and that needs to be considered carefully. You have to truly look at who is the best player, and if that's another defensive tackle, fine. But when neither of two guys has a clear edge, I think you pick in favor of the one who can make the biggest immediate impact. If the best guy available is either a wide receiver or a cornerback, that will be a better scenario for the Jets than if the best player available is a left tackle.
Well, the thinking is that you want as much talent on your team as you can get, even if it's just increasing your strengths rather than shoring up your weaknesses. The weakness will be there next year to address, but an A+ talented guy probably won't be. Also, it's a lot easier to just find an average/decent guy for a short term deal to patch up your weaknesses for a year. Of course, you hope that the best player available is also in an area of need- and maybe that's where teams delude themselves and get into trouble.
If the BPA is an OT, he will play RT for 2 seasons, and then swing to LT in 2016 when the Jets are up against a 14K+ cap hit for D'brick (unless he vastly restructures). That is only 2 seasons away. Also if D'brick gets injured, we'd have insurance at LT in the meantime (which we haven't had in ages). If the player projects as a LT only (with no versatility to play either LT or RT), then he probably isn't the BPA. Drafting one of the 3 premier OT's in this draft would be a great move for the Jets.
That makes sense, and that's a good point. If he's worthy of the #18 pick he should be able to play right tackle. I wonder if Breno would be moved to guard in that case? I haven't heard much about the top OTs in the draft, but I'm not following it very closely and I'm not familiar with the tackles that are available.
Depends on the comparison between Cooks and said D-lineman. You have to be able to take both, and compare what they bring to your team vs each other. If they are relatively equal, then you go with which one you need more. If they match up closely in terms of value, and are both positions of need, then you look at how much better he is than the other talent at his position. If there is a head and shoulders BPA player at a position that you already have multiple pro bowl caliber players who are young too, you start to look at trading back, because if he is that much better than anyone else, someone is going to want to move up for him. When you've traded back, you reassess the BPA.
Jets drafted 3 guys on OL last year for a reason. They needed to restock the talent up front first. With a year's experience under the belt, it's about time to see if the last year's OL crops are worth anything. So my answer here would be an emphatic NO. I would think that Jets can find a suitable starter and two solid rotation guys out of the picks last year. Here, the hoping is that, Jets keep on spending one of the low round picks on OL - but other than that, it shouldn't change their draft strategy. A hallmark of any good organization is to be able to spot the talent, nurture it and get a good production out of it. Let's see if Jets can get any production out of last year's OL crops.
You make a good point bringing up the three linemen picked last draft. But they were lower round picks about whom we have seen or heard nothing. The one guy we have seen ended up being the worst starter on the team. From that I have to assume that none of the others are as good as Winters. We all hope Winters improves his game this year. And maybe he will, which would be great. Taking off some of the pressure on the OL and all that. But at this point I have no reason to be optimistic about the others making any short term contributions. The difficulty here is that both current starting guards are mediocre to worse. Colon is a veteran leader, and I am sure the Jets consider him a good teammate. But he commits too many penalties and was lucky to avoid injury last season, given his prior history. I think the Jets need someone on the roster who could either be an upgrade over Winters if Winters shows no improvement, or to replace Colon if Willie got hurt. How this plays out in terms of the draft will be interesting, and reportedly the draft is thin at OG. But if a good prospect falls to the Jets, I would expect them to use it for an interior lineman.
Thanks for the clarification. We're in agreement that if it's (bpa) a tie, you go with the more immediate need, and in the Jets' case this year, that could be a WR, TE, FS, OLB or CB. I don't agree that if the Jets drafted an OT this year that he'd necessarily sit for 2-3 years. Yes, the Jets can't cut Brick before 2016 without taking a huge hit, but let's say the Jets draft Lewan at #18. What if he comes in and immediately is playing at a higher level than Brick from his very first practice? The Jets wouldn't be able to cut or probably trade Brick, but if Idzik is being honest with his competition mantra, there's a good chance that Lewan could start immediately. If not immediately, then if Brick's play is struggling any at all possibly by mid-season, or certainly by next season. Giacommini could also struggle and they could use Lewan at RT until they're ready to move Brick out of the starting lineup. I guess it depends upon what you mean by a "developmental prospect." If you mean that a player is totally raw and won't be ready to see the field for at least a year or two, then no, you don't take a developmental prospect at #18 in the 1st round. IMO those types of developmental prospects shouldn't even be considered before the 4th round. OTOH, let's say we're talking about an OLB. Many of them take at least a half season if not a whole season before they're really ready for all the responsibilities involved starting. Let's say Dee Ford or Anthony Barr is the bpa at the Jets' pick (#18). They are developmental prospects too, but with their speed and ability to get to the QB, they could be situational pass rushers to start and gradually work their way into the starting lineup. I'm hoping that the bpa on Idzik's board at #18 is either Cooks, Beckham Jr. or Lee, but if someone like Barr, Ebron, Lewan or Gilbert, and maybe Clinton-Dix is there, it becomes a lot less clear about who the bpa is, and a strong case could be made for any of them to be the #1 pick.
Yes I'd agree the OT would need the versatility to play either LT or RT if we took at 18. Breno I'd see as the backup RT, 6th man off line for heavy packages, and I'd hope he would challenge for a starting G spot as well. The premier OT"s this draft are Jake Matthews (son of Bruce Matthews, nephew of Clay Matthews, cousin of Clay Matthews III, etc), Robinson, and Lewan. The first 2 will be gone in top 10 no doubt. There is a real slim chance Lewan could reach us at 18, but i'm not holding my breath on that to happen. on a side note, i believe TE prospect Troy Niklas is also a nephew of Bruce Matthews. That is someone i like as a potential round 2 draft pick...
The thing is, good organizations almost always find good OL out of UDFAs and low round picks. Stephen Neal, Shaun O'Hara, Rich Seubert, Brandon Moore [of the Jets], Kris Dielman, etc etc; I am just listing the UDFA OLs that turned into a solid pro bowlers, and they are quite handful already, out of 3 year crop. I could go on for more - but I fail to see the point. Of course, there is a prerequisite, which is that, the organization 1. prioritizes the OL and 2. has good OL coach. I don't know how good Mike Devlin is as of now - if I had to grade his performance, based on the OL play of last year, I'd be hard pressed to give him F at the most generous grade. That also compromises the picks Jets made last year, and also the picks Jets MAY make this year. So I am hoping Mike Devlin improves a lot this year first and foremost. If he is not up for the task, OL will be brutalized all season long like they were last year. Now, assuming he's up to task, then it remains to be seen whether the OL prospects last year have grown up to a serviceable level. [Here's a small hoping that they did.] Either way, unless BPA dictates that way, taking OG high should be a taboo.
Leuwan and Martin are the only OT's that are worth taking if they are there at 18. I still think playmaker is the way to go but we wont know until we pick who's available.
Expect the Jets will pass on a pass catching TE and go for a big blocker at the position in the draft. With Johnson on board they can afford to save the pick until later in the draft. It leaves the 2nd round pick wide open for a defensive back or OLB.
Troy Niklas in the third would be AWESOME. probably take by then (especially if NE didn't pick TE in the first) but that would be excellent value.
Am I just daft to think that ONE of the late two picks last year will become a staple at starting RG? Its the fact that we haven't seen them since august and the idea of them progressing behind the scenes with an offseason under their belt that has me thinking that this is possible. Campbell in particular, I like the idea of Colon holding the fort while Campbell gets bait more time this year and comes in to start in 2015 having become a finished 3 year project. He was a member of the main roster despite not getting any gametime, I think they want this to work out. He's a big strong dude too, if he's any good at gauging the movements of players in his old position and develop moves of his own with the power to back it up, I think he might be a long term answer. I'm totally fine being ripped on that opinion, just a gut feeling.
You are not alone. Actually, that must have been their expectation too. They have done it once already in the recent past [Brandon Moore] and I simply don't see why they shouldn't do that either. Remember how much Moore struggled at the start of his position change. He wasn't WFH bad, but he looked terrible quite often. How did that end, though? Moore became a very solid contributor. The best part is, he was an UDFA. All three others have a better shot at making it to the pro than any UDFA you can pick up from the street.
i don't think that is a good assumption. winters was drafted to be a lg, transitioning from lt at kent st. aboushi and campbell were both projected to be on the right side. i am not sure either were considered to move to lg last season.we can safely assume that campbell and aboushi were not as good last year as colon and howard but i don't think that is an indictment on their skill,considering their experience vs that of the would be starters.
