After Darnold and Rosen, any other QB's worth to trade up to 3 for?

Discussion in 'Draft' started by Brook!, Dec 28, 2017.

  1. Harpua

    Harpua Well-Known Member

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    I think it was important. He got to sit and learn what it takes to be a pro QB and didn’t have to deal with the pressure of carrying the team and fans expectations.

    I also believe giving him that last game of experience was huge for his development. He has game tape of himself to break down and see his mistakes and work on them.

    It’s obvious he has the physical talent. He’ll be an interesting case moving forward.
     
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  2. legler82

    legler82 Well-Known Member

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    Despite coming from the Spread, he looked plenty comfortable in the pre-season running Reid's WCO, just like he did in that Denver game. He only sat because the Chiefs had a QB that led them to a 12-4 record the year before. We have NO IDEA if sitting did more for him than playing would have. On a lot of teams, like the Jets for example, he would be the best QB on the roster. Sh*t the Chiefs are in the playoffs right now with Alex Smith leading the league in passer rating and current reports are saying the Chiefs are looking to trade Alex Smith in the offseason. So, it sounds like the Chiefs think Mahomes is the best QB on their roster too; if you ask Chiefs fans it's not even a question. I think we tell ourselves these things like "he's a project", "he wouldn't get a chance to sit and learn here", "we don't have Andy Reid" and "ya da ya da ya da" to, consciously or subconsciously, make us feel better about passing on a potentially great QB for an in-the-box safety.
     
    #42 legler82, Jan 6, 2018
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2018
  3. NYJetsO12

    NYJetsO12 Well-Known Member

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    Yes ..and the mistakes and missed opportunities will continue to haunt this team until Mac stays out of round 2 and 4 in search of a great QB
     
  4. legler82

    legler82 Well-Known Member

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    Below is an exchange from NFLN NFL Gameday Morning today between Rich Eisen and Denver's all pro CB Chris Harris Jr regarding the Chiefs potentially trading Alex Smith in the off season.

    Harris Jr: "Alex Smith has been playing great all season. Why would take that for granted? I mean you lose him then you have to start all over teaching a rookie young QB the whole new offense. They might be limited when you bring Mahomes out there vs what you can do with Alex Smith. He's been proven in the playoffs. I mean...I think he is 1-3. So he definitely...today is huge for him..."

    Eisen:
    "...I got a question to ask you. You saw Mahomes with your own 2 eyes. What did you think?"

    Harris Jr: "[chuckling] I can't lie; he looks like the real deal. His arm is serious! [laughing]"

    F*ck you Mac!!!
     
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  5. NYJetsO12

    NYJetsO12 Well-Known Member

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    So much talent out there : Allen Rosen Darnold...

    Only one guy has the IT factor imo and that's Baker Mayfield...unless some one ahead of us grabs him ..he could be THE GUY
     
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  6. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

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    I still gnash my teeth that we didn't take Mahomes, ESPECIALLY in light of the fact that hey knew that Petty and Hack were trash. Even if they didn't know for ABSOLUTE certain until T.C., they certainly had a pretty good idea. I would love to know what their reasoning was in passing over Mahomes and Watson when they had shit for QBs.
     
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  7. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

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    All three are top candidates, although I think Darnold will need more work than Rosen or Mayfield. Rosen is the most cerebral of all the QBs from what I've seen, and that's why I like him the most, although the chances of us getting him are very small. If we can't get Rosen, I'd be very happy with Mayfield, but whoever we get they had better create a system for him that maximizes his strengths.
     
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  8. legler82

    legler82 Well-Known Member

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    They told us. It's because an in the box safety with great leadership skills surprising fell to their laps at 6. According to Mac they went BPA so to Mac Adams > Mahomes. Given that QB is more A LOT more valuable than SS. In Mac's eyes, the talent gap between the 2 of them had to be pretty wide.
     
  9. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

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    And that's what scares me about Macc being the GM.

    Maybe Macc has this great long term plan to build the Jets into a decades-long contender like the Patriots, and it's based on stocking the roster with the BPAs at every position. The flaw in this plan IMO is that it might take 5 - 10 years to stockpile all those BPAs in every position, during which time some of your previous picks got hurt, didn't pan out, get older, so you never can reach that ideal. I don't know if that's his plan, and he certainly doesn't owe me or any fan an explanation, but it might greatly reduce the questions about him. But from what I've seen in three years is no real plan, and no knowledge of building an offense, let alone finding a FQB. I sure hope he surprises me.
     
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  10. NYJetsO12

    NYJetsO12 Well-Known Member

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    He owes all a BIG explanation !!!! For back to back Safties??!

    But when the heartless phony owner who has his brother "connect" with fans as thy tailgate, the clueless coach who loves a handout for zero improvement on his part, and the sly error prone GM are all in on the Scam of the Year ...they make stuff like this and 5-11 look like we won first prize
     
  11. njjets93

    njjets93 Active Member

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    My guy last year was Mahomes. I posted a bunch of videos and "expert" analysis in support of the Jets moving up to select him. I hated to lose out on him, but really love the Adams pick. Get the pass rusher this year(Hardy/Chubb) maybe move down a few and get Key , and then get a RB (Adams/Love) and OL depth in round 2. No Qb drafted this year will be ready to start year one, and we can't afford to wait for one to develop,, again. We need a player with immediate impact.

    Drafting a QB in the first round is such a crap shoot. Since 2007 I think like 28 qbs were drafted in the first round and only 12 or seen significant playing time.. and that is counting questionable/injured qbs like Bridgewater, Bradford and Tannehill. The list of flops is numerous.

    Meanwhile SOME of Qbs drafted after the first round include: Favre 2nd, Brady 6th, Brees 2nd, Tyrod Taylor 6th, Dalton 2nd, Russell Wilson 3rd, Derrick Carr 2nd, Garrapolo 2nd, Prescott 4th, Brissett 4th. This is a partial list of some who are all timers and some that are current starters, but all drafted out of first round.. Drafting a QB is a lot of luck and hopefully a staff doing their homework.


    http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?type=position
    Link to Qbs drafted... some of these #1 picks will amaze you in the incompetence of some GMs.
     
  12. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

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    See my posts in two different threads today for stats that show taking a QB with your highest pick is the best way to go.39% of ELITE QBs are taken in the 1st round in the past 30 years. And while it's also true that during that time 39% taken in the 1st round were BUSTs, the remaining 22% were at least average, so adding 39 + 22 = 61% chance of some measure of success.

    Here's a link to an article that discusses this FYI:

    https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/05/31/drafting-an-nfl-qb/
     
  13. njjets93

    njjets93 Active Member

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    Rosen, Darnold, and even Mayfield have the arms to rate a top ten pick but each has other issues that throw up a red flag.

    With Mayfield its maturity issues that would really cause problems in the NFL especially in NY. He also is not that big , he could scramble some in college but would get physically hurt in NFL. I would take a chance on him in a later round, but most likely some teams will draft him ahead of us from desperation. I followed him from his walk on days at Texas Tech and I think he peaked as a very good college QB, and may get some time as a NFL player but will not be the franchise player we are looking for. He was bumped from his starting spot by Davis Webb and Pat Mahomes.

    Watching Rosen and Darnold both lack something, the physical talent is there but there is something about how they go about things. I don't know if its a leadership , toughness issue, but something is lacking. From the games I saw both are inconsistent on the field, they can look good than really bad. Not worth a gamble at #6.
     
  14. njjets93

    njjets93 Active Member

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    Colorado what does Harvard know about football, lol.

    Check out the NFL link I posted it lists every drafted QB.. I didn't go back 30 years because i was getting nausea from the names I saw drafted in the first.. Also the 22 % number is a subjective number. It depends on what the viewer deemed was average, or I would call serviceable.

    I don't know the number but I would be curious on the success rate on drafting pass rushers, or linebackers in the first round.. I would bet the number is better than 39%.
     
  15. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    I couldn't possibly disagree more with your bolded sentences above. In fact, I think it's utter nonsense! I think that two QBs in this draft are capable of starting day one: Baker Mayfield and Josh Rosen.

    Why can't we wait for a QB to develop? That's nonsense. This is still a rebuilding team. It isn't a QB away from being a contender for the Lombardi Trophy. There are still depth issues, and holes at RB, WR, several on the OL, OLB, ILB and CB. More importantly, we can't afford NOT to wait for one to develop. Have you learned nothing from watching the Jets bring in one JAG FA QB after another? Evidently not! We don't need a FA QB. We need to draft and develop our own QB. If he can start day one, great! If not, that's fine too. There's no need to throw him to the wolves. Work with him, develop him, give him a half season or even an entire season to learn the offense, adjust to the NFL, work on any shortcomings, timing, arm strength, etc., and then either hand him the job next season or have him compete for the starting job. The only way this team will ever escape from the rut of mediocrity and achieve any kind of real success, is to draft and develop its own franchise QB who can start for them for the next 10-15 years. Then they have a realistic chance at becoming a perennial playoff team, getting to, and winning the SB. Anything else is pure delusional BS.

    Your figures are wrong too. Read the two articles that ColoradoContrails posted. You'll see just how wrong you are.
     
  16. njjets93

    njjets93 Active Member

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    NC we just disagree on the potential of both Mayfield and Rosen. Mayfield while not as bad as Manziel , he is a very immature individual..Bottom line if the Jets think the franchise guy is there I am sure they will pick him. My expert opinion notwithstanding, lol.

    I would love to see the Jets select a franchise QB and patiently develop him, but I don't see one in Mafield, Rosen Darnold, Allen, et.al.
    Some very good QBs were drafted an developed outside the first round.. I listed some in another post. NC I do agree with you about the depth issues and I don't like drafting out of need. I like the dreaded BPA draft, not a popular opinion.
     
  17. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

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    I agree, I wish there were studies that showed those stats for the other positions, but I'm going to guess that the success rate IS higher for them, HOWEVER, that's because they're not as demanding as QB. But you NEED a QB, there's no way around it. He is the single biggest difference-maker on a team, by a mile. So yes, the risk is higher, but the reward is MUCH higher:

    (From the Harvard study) -
    Having an elite or bust QB has a significant effect on win percentage. Teams with an elite quarterback, on average, win 55% of the time while teams with a bust have a 35% win percentage. Since the average team wins 50% of the time, the benefit of having an elite QB is +5% on win percentage while a bust performs 15% below average – a huge effect for one player to have on 53-man roster.

    IMO this is why the Jets - most recently Macc - draft "D" - they think there's less risk, but even when they hit - and they miss quite a bit - what has that gotten them? How many championships? Factor in the trend of the NFL to widely favor offense over defense, and it should be clear which way the Jets have to go.
     
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  18. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

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    I don't know how you can NOT see FQB potential in those guys. Not to say they're guaranteed, but they certainly have a good chance of becoming one, especially with the right coaching and surrounding talent. Given the Jets record at not developing QBs you could say that means they shouldn't draft one of these guys, but here's a couple of points:

    1. Whether Bowles & Co. are capable doesn't negate the need for them to do it, and if they can't, they need to be replaced.
    2. The Jets need a FQ in order to become relevent.
    3. These may be good enough to overcome the shortcomings of Bowles and the current CS. Again, if not, I would look to replace the CS before I gave up on a legit FQB prospect.

    And yes, the BPA approach IS "dreaded" because it's a risk-averse approach, and there is no such thing as eliminating all risk. Sure, once you identify your highest needs, it's fine to look at what's available and then take the BPA out of that for your highest need, but simply saying I'll take BPA and find a way to use him, or passing up on filling a higher need simply because it presents a higher risk, doesn't make your team better. Again, what if they took Mahomes (or Watson) last year instead of Adams, and took Maye as they did? Do you not think they would be better off right now? They wouldn't be forced to choose a QB this year, and could focus instead on an elite pass rusher or OL with their first pick, perhaps even trading down to do so and getting more premium picks. Two years in a row Macc defaulted to BPA,and while Williams and Adams are fine picks, did they really make the Jets that much better than they might've been? I don't think so.
     
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  19. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    It's fine that we disagree. I'm much higher on Mayfield's potential than Rosen's. I disagree that Mayfield is very immature. He has made some mistakes, but owned up to them, admitted he was wrong, apologized and took his punishment/embarrassment like a man. He has admitted that he has some growing up to do. It takes maturity to see that and be willing to admit it.

    Even if you are right and none of Mayfield, Rosen, Darnold and/or Allen become elite, chances are that at least a couple of them, if not all of them will at least become competent starters in the NFL. How long has it been since the Jets have had one of those? How many times do we have to bring in other team's castoffs? Wouldn't it be nice to be able to plug in a young QB and know that he was going to be (or at least could be unless we were able to draft someone better later) our starter for the next 10-15 years and not have to worry about it?

    This is a rebuilding team. This is the time to take a chance on drafting and developing a young QB so the team can grow together. It's not the time to pay a ton of money to a good, but limited QB who is already 30 in hopes of just becoming competitive for the next 5 years or so. If they're gonna do that, they might as well just fold the franchise and close up shop, because that's not trying to be the best they can be to win it all.

    Yes, some very good QBs have been found outside the first round, but by far, they are exceptions to the rule, NOT the rule. How often have the Jets been lucky or good enough for something like that to happen to/for them? The odds are so small of the Jets finding a quality, much less elite QB, outside of the 1st round are so miniscule, that it's not even worth their wasting a pick from a lower round on a QB unless he is targeted specifically to be a backup or is a developmental prospect that they hope they can eventually trade for a pick. Otherwise, they'd be better off using those picks outside of the 1st round to address holes and depth.

    I think the only way this team ever stands a chance of getting to and winning another SB is to draft and develop their own QB. If they're not interested in doing that, then I'm no longer interested in following or supporting this team.
     
    #59 NCJetsfan, Jan 7, 2018
    Last edited: Jan 7, 2018
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  20. NCJetsfan

    NCJetsfan Well-Known Member

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    I trust what statisticians/mathematicians at Harvard find in a study one heck of a lot more than I do stats compiled by the NFL. They don't have to know anything about football, but imo they understand percentages, facts and figures and their implications a whole lot clearer than we would looking at just raw numbers compiled by the NFL.
     
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